Since the last time Wout van Aert won one of cycling’s Monuments, Mathieu van der Poel has won four. An alarming stat for the Belgian and one which will no doubt have lingered at the back of his mind after Van der Poel was the first man across the line in the Roubaix velodrome last April.
Van Aert won Milan-San Remo in 2020 but has failed to add further Monument victories to his palmarès since. For much of his career, he has been unable to escape comparisons with his long term rival and that shows no signs of abating anytime soon.
The 29-year-old runs the risk of being labelled a Classics nearly man, a perennial runner up, particularly to Van der Poel. However, a rejigged programme in the build up to his Spring campaign this year means it's all in for Paris-Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders, it's now or never.
He has already won once on the cobbles this year, at Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, but that will largely count for nothing if he fails to deliver one or both of the big ticket items for Visma-Lease a Bike in a fortnight's time. Kuurne is a Classic, yes, but not one of the same prestige as the crucial races which Van Aert needs to deliver in.
Van Aert already has the kind of trophy cabinet that many pros can only dream of. Nine individual stages at the Tour de France - as well as a green points jersey - and wins at some of cycling’s major one-day races. But with only one Monument to his name, it still seems like there’s something missing when you compare his record to his rival. At 29, time is starting to run out to change that too.
As well as Roubaix, Van der Poel beat Van Aert at both Milan-San Remo last year and in the World Championships road race in the streets of Glasgow.
Other than the odd cyclo-cross race and last year’s E3 Saxo Bank Classic, Van Aert has largely been unable to get the better of him of late. It’s been clear that has rattled him in the past, but heading into the next races he says that’s different now after finding peace with his biggest critic, himself.
After winning E3, Van Aert turned to the television cameras and yelled “Ik moet just niks [I don’t need to do anything]” in a bid to silence his sceptics. But the fact that slipped out suggests Van der Poel having the edge was playing on his mind.
Delivering this April would finally kick that same self doubt into touch and lift the weight of home expectation from his shoulders for good.
Van Aert heads into his next races after an altitude camp on Mount Teide in Tenerife. He told Het Laatste Nieuws that he found watching San Remo from afar relaxing and that he is relatively stress free going into the next events on his calendar. This suggests a new approach, one in which he is now at one with himself and less inclined to open the window and let the noise from outside pour in.
"I've been feeling less pressure for a whole year than I had in the past," he said. "I don't deny that pressure is a challenge to deal with.
"2023 may have been the first time that my season was slightly worse than the year before. Until then I had always done better than expected. That gave me an insight that I shouldn't do it for anyone else other than myself. It gives me a feeling of peace. I shouldn't do this to show someone that I can do it or to prove someone wrong."
His new zen approach to competition is one which will certainly stand him in good stead. Van Aert doesn’t deserve the label of being a nearly man, but he knows it’s one he will inevitably be given should he fail to deliver on his promise.
Post-E3 he was right, he shouldn’t have to do anything further in order to prove his worth, but equally, he’ll know that it's the nature of the beast and the circus that is professional cycling and elite sport.
Win Roubaix or Flanders and then he really doesn’t need to do much more, cycling greatness, will be guaranteed. Cross the line first in a Monument in the next fortnight, and that new found peace will be everlasting, his job will well and truly be done.
