Welcome to this week's Branch Office Updates newsletter! Click the linked banner above to subscribe.
AT LABOUR conference a few weeks back, I could already feel a bit of underlying anxiety in Scottish Labour ranks.
The mood was largely celebratory of course. I lost count of the number of times I heard about the 37 Scottish seats they had won at the General Election, going some way in helping secure a stonking Labour majority.
But there were already some concerns that Keir Starmer and the UK Labour top brass weren’t fully aware of or prioritising the 2026 Holyrood election.
After all, as Anas Sarwar said in an interview in February this year – he can’t afford an “unpopular” Labour Government if he is to become Scotland’s next first minister.
“I am really open with Keir and the UK shadow cabinet that I want to and need to be going into a 2026 election in the midterm of a popular Labour government, not an unpopular one,” Sarwar told The New Statesman.
But is Sir Keir listening?
You can safely say that the first 100 days of this new Labour Government haven’t gone fully to plan. The row over freebies for one.
But then there have also been a sequence of policy decisions that have proven unbelievably unpopular – notably cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment and keeping the two-child benefit cap – which have led to an almighty collapse in approval ratings.
The discontent has dribbled into the political arena already – with the party even admitting that the cut to the WFP was to blame for damaging losses to the SNP in two Dundee by-elections.
There are already signs, too, of opposition to the policy within its elected officials too – with two rebel MSPs rebelling against Sarwar in a Holyrood vote this week.
Former Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard (above) and Alex Rowley, who stepped down from the frontbench last month, backed the SNP motion which called for the UK Government to reverse the cut.
I spoke with several Scottish Labour members, too, who expressed frustration at the direction of the party and disappointment as Sarwar’s perceived refusal to “stand up to Starmer” as he previously promised.
“Scottish Labour are definitely not doing enough to fight the Winter Fuel Payment cut and the two child benefit cap,” one member told me.
“Members and Scottish voters who backed Labour have had a bit of a double whammy with lies to be honest. First, we were promised change by Starmer, which hasn’t happened. Then, we were promised a fight by Sarwar which hasn’t happened either.”
They added: “It will almost certainly come back to bite them in 2026 unless something drastically changes.”
Another member cut a more optimistic tone.
“I still think Scotland is behind Labour because they want to see real change from the Conservatives,” they said.
“Even now, our policies are distinct from the Tories despite the comparisons some outlets might want to make.”
But regardless, if the new Labour Government continues in this vein, Sarwar’s chances of becoming first minister will continue to take a hit.
