Consider weather forecasting. The earth’s atmosphere is a laboratory of randomness, whose conditions change frequently in terms of its pressure, density, the flow-rates of various gases, and temperature. As a result, the paths of gas molecules become increasingly unpredictable. This is why a weather phenomenon that has been predicted to last for a longer period of time is unlikely to be as accurate – or even true, for that matter – for a more intermittent duration.
This is why a simple model that tracks the way heat is moved through the atmosphere can possess a lot of unpredictability. Such notions are captured by the term ‘butterfly effect’ – named for the idea that the mere flapping of a butterfly’s wings in one place can produce a storm somewhere else. This may sound ridiculous but as a metaphor, it has a well-understood scientific basis.
