It's a warm summer night, and that has us looking at the overs for a pair of game totals tonight. The conditions are right for hitters in these two matchups, so let's bet on the bats coming out tonight.
I'm targeting two elite offenses in the Red Sox and Royals on Monday while also trusting the poor form of a pair of starters in the Giants vs. Nationals in our best bets column.
All odds according to DraftKings.
Best Bets for Monday, August 5th
- Red Sox vs. Royals OVER 10 (-110)
- Giants vs. Nationals OVER 9 (-108)
Red Sox at Royals OVER 10
Since the All-Star Break, games at Kauffman Stadium have averaged 9.44 runs, but I expect this one to go over with the warm air and a light breeze blowing out to left field tonight.
The Red Sox will start lefty James Paxton, who has an ERA of 5.79 since joining the Red Sox and 4.52 this season. Paxton's exit velocity and max exit velocity allowed are in the bottom 5% of the league. That will spell trouble vs. the Royals, who have averaged 5.88 runs per game since the All-Star Break. Kansas City ranks tenth in batting average vs. lefties, and they have a mere 17.8% strikeout rate vs. southpaws this season (3rd).
The Royals will counter Brady Singer, whose xERA of 4.88 is much higher than his actual 2.88 ERA, and these look like the right conditions for some regression. The Red Sox are averaging a league-leading 6.53 runs per game since the All-Star Break.
Both bullpens have struggled since the break, especially Boston relievers. The Red Sox pen has an ERA of 6.23 over the last two weeks of play.
Look for Bobby Witt, Jr., Salvador Perez, Jarren Duran, and Rafael Devers to be hot at the dish tonight.
Bobby Witt, Jr. or Aaron Judge?
— Jennifer Piacenti (@jenpiacenti) August 3, 2024
Witt is certainly making his case-- @SI_Betting @SInow pic.twitter.com/8dusk3qofj
Giants at Nationals OVER 9
Again, we are getting favorable weather conditions, so let's lean into the over.
Patrick Corbin has been better at home than when away this year; however he has an ERA of 7.88 since the All-Star Break and an xERA of 5.84 for the season. His max exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 6% of the league, as are his xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate.
Matt Chapman, Tyler Fitzgerald, and even Michael Conforto should get in their knocks tonight vs. Corbin, whose 12.8% homerun to flyball ration could get him into trouble.
After Corbin likely goes five innings, the Giants will benefit from facing the Washington bullpen that has a 6.63 ERA since the All-Star Break.
On the other side, Logan Webb gets the start for the Giants. Webb's hard-hit rate and max exit velocity allowed are in the bottom five percent of MLB. Though he is the superior pitcher, there is opportunity for the Nationals to contribute to the game total at home.
Webb struggles more when he is away, with a road ERA of 4.30 vs. 2.61 at home. The Nationals have scored the eighth-most runs per game since the All-Star Break (4.89).
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today ( (Take the Over for Red Sox/Royals and Giants/Nationals).
