The U.S. Men’s National Team woke up from its dream on Thursday night following its only loss of the group stage against Türkiye. Following the loss, prediction markets saw the prices slashed for the USMNT winning the World Cup .
Kalshi’s USMNT World Cup price dropped from 5.6% to 4.6%. On Polymarket, the drop was similar, going from 4% to 3.1%.
USMNT World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- Yes 4.6%
- No 95.7%
USMNT World Cup Winner - Polymarket
- Yes 3.1%
- No 97%
At the current trading price, $20 on Kalshi for the USMNT to win offers $387.52. The same trade amount on Polymarket offers $606.41.
Why the U.S. lost to Türkiye
As expected, manager Mauricio Pochettino rested several key players after the U.S. had already clinched top spot in the group. Most notably, Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson.
They were rested to avoid both injury and a second yellow card that would trigger a one-game suspension.
Looking ahead
USA Round of elimination
- Quarterfinals 33%
- Round of 16 26%
- Round of 32 23%
- Semifinals 14%
- Outright Winner 5%
- Runner-Up 4%
With the U.S. advancing to the Round of 32, prediction markets adjusted the price now favoring the Americans to advance through the next two rounds.
The USMNT will take on Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on July 1. A match in which they are favored at 67%. Bosnia finished the group stage 1-1-1 and was outscored 6-5.
As far as the Round of 16, it is a potential matchup against Egypt, the current leader of Group G or a third-place team from groups A, E, H, I, or J, which could include teams like South Korea, Ecuador, Cape Verde, Uruguay, Senegal, or Algeria. The U.S. would likely be favored against any of these opponents, based on the "round of elimination" market.
USMNT World Cup history
In 11 World Cup appearances, the USMNT has been eliminated in the group stage four times, the round of 16 four times, and the quarterfinals and third-place finish once.
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