Almost two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are no signs of a military victory for either side. Nor are there clear prospects of a ceasefire, let alone a negotiated settlement. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow are willing to compromise on their stated war aims – but neither has a clear path to achieving them.
All that Russia and Ukraine can muster for now are the resources to prevent the other side from winning, at the cost of more human suffering, in particular in Ukraine.
At the end of 2022, momentum appeared to be on Ukraine’s side. A successful counteroffensive had delivered significant territorial gains around Kharkiv in the north and forced Russia to withdraw from Kherson in the south.
