Vladimir Putin’s troops will be “pretty easy pickings” for Ukrainian forces in looming Donbas battles as they will be forced to remain in columns on the road by “springtime mud,” Britain’s armed forces minister said on Tuesday.
James Heappey accused the Russian president of threatening to send “an awful lot” of his soldiers to their death unnecessarily because he reportedly wants a victory parade in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, a key date in the Russian military calendar as it marks the Nazis’ surrender in the Second World War.
Mr Heappey, a former British army officer, stressed that large-scale military advances could be carried out in Ukraine in the “dead of winter” on frozen ground or when it is hard-baked in the summer - but not in the spring when mud means tanks and other heavy military vehicles are unable to go “cross country”.
Mr Putin is now believed to be pouring tens of thousands of soldiers into the Donbas after his lightning invasion plan, to seize Kyiv within days, failed and his forces retreated from northern Ukraine.
Fierce fighting is expected to erupt in this region of eastern Ukraine, which includes areas of Donetsk and Luhansk held by Moscow-backed separatists, in coming weeks.
However, Mr Heappey told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “There is hubris in the Russian plan for the next phase.
“You can conduct military operations in Ukraine either in the dead of winter when the ground is frozen solid or in the summer when the ground is dry and hard.
“The mud of Ukraine in the springtime brought the Nazis to a standstill in Operation Barbarossa.
“And Putin’s desire to have a May 9 victory parade through Moscow is just characteristic of the hubris and utter disregard for loss of Russian life that he has shown so far.”
He explained further: “When the Russians advance into the Donbas over the next week or two, if they are going to try to achieve something by May 9, they will be forced to remain on roads because the mud does not allow for armoured manoeuvre cross country.
“What we will see therefore is highly canalised Russian columns that as we saw north of Kyiv present the Ukrainians with pretty easy pickings.
“So I absolutely believe that the Ukrainians can absorb and then repel what is coming and that if the Russians continue to make their plans with Putin’s hubris at the heart of their considerations, then they are going to lose an awful lot of Russian people unnecessarily.”
The Russian army is also beset by low morale, according to western officials, and has also suffered from poor supplies of fuel, ammunition and food for some units.
Small groups of Ukrainian fighters have successfully targeted Russian military columns, which have stuck to roads, often using weapons supplied from the West.
