This time last week, the world was anxiously awaiting the annual Victory Day celebrations in Russia for a clue as to what Vladimir Putin might be planning for his war in Ukraine. Victory Day, held every year on May 9, is a commemoration of the victory over Nazism in Europe, a victory that the Soviet Union had played such a massive part in – with such a massive cost. It continues to have huge significance for most people in Russia. There can’t be many families whose parents or grandparents escaped the horrors of what is still known as the “Great Patriotic War”.
This year, Victory Day was billed as having a special significance, due to the war in Ukraine. Kremlin watchers predicted that either Putin might declare “mission accomplished” in his “special military operation” or – more ominously – a mass mobilisation to allow the Russian military to double down on its assault on Ukraine. In the event, neither was forthcoming. The Russian president instead restated his spin on the invasion, that it is a crusade to rid Ukraine of the “Nazi gang” that he says runs the country – a message that has special resonance, given the nature of the commemoration.
Stefan Wolff, an expert in international security at Birmingham University specialising in the post-Soviet space, believes that Ukraine’s stout defence has forced Russia into assuming a more defensive mode) and that we are now more likely to see a war of attrition that could last some time. He says increased western military aid and economic sanctions will continue to take their toll and a return to negotiations might be feasible, but this time Ukraine – and its charismatic leader Volodymyr Zelensky – will be playing with an altogether stronger hand.
