UK Covid cases are reportedly numbering in the millions as one health expert claims the official data doesn't reflect the number of infections ravaging the country.
Professor Tim Spector suggests cases are nearer to numbers seen in the first Omicron wave last winter, with the situation set to worsen over the coming months. In comments to the Mirror, the epidemiologist said the UK is already within an autumn Covid wave.
Around 2.6 million people are estimated to have the virus, according to Prof Spector's ZOE Health Study. In comparison, the latest figures by the Office of National Statistics estimate the total infected is just over a million - but this data is now almost three weeks out of date.
The ZOE Health Study uses testing and symptom data from millions of participating app users. Its latest figures put new Covid-19 cases at 224,000 a day as of Tuesday. This is up 27 per cent on the 176,000 new daily cases a week earlier.
Latest analysis from ZOE as shared with the Mirror suggests one in 25 Brits now has Covid. Many more currently have the common cold.
"We believe that the ZOE data shows we are in an autumn wave," shared Prof Spector. "Covid is currently affecting four per cent of the UK population and the trend is going up. If rates continue as they are, we are set to reach the same heights we did in the summer.
"Many of us are poorly right now as we are also seeing lots of colds. Three times as many people have colds compared to Covid.
He pointed out that the first symptom seen with the cold and Covid are the same, recommending people with a sore throat take a Covid test.
He said: "Confusingly, both seem to present with a sore throat in the early days, but if you are sneezing this could be a good sign and mean you have a cold, not Covid. If anyone wakes up with a sore throat, I'd recommend checking with a test just to be sure."
New NHS data also shows almost 10,000 hospital patients have tested positive which is at its highest for two months.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) today reported 273 significant outbreaks last week, up from 170 the week before.
Dr Susan Hopkins, UKHSA Chief Medical Advisor, said: "This week's data shows concerning further increases in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisation rates, which are now at their highest level in months. Outbreaks in hospitals and care homes are also on the rise.
She advised: "Make sure you have any Covid-19 vaccinations you are eligible for and avoid contact with others if you feel unwell or have symptoms of a respiratory infection.
"If you are unwell, it is particularly important to avoid contact with elderly people or those who are more likely to have severe disease because of their ongoing health conditions.
"If you have symptoms of a respiratory infection, wearing a face covering will also help stop infections spreading."
According to the latest official data from the ONS survey published last Friday, an estimated 1.1 million Brits had the virus. The latest finding was the first time the ONS random swab testing study has been above one million infections since late August.
However, its latest data relies on tests taken in the week up to September 17. It was still well below the 3.8 million infections the ONS estimated in early July.
This compares to ZOE study data led by King's College London which suggests the real number of infections are now much closer to the first Omicron peak and is only set to rise in the coming months.
Prof Spector added: "The ONS official data, due to its methodology, has always lagged behind the ZOE Health Study.
"Like most people, I really don't want to have Covid again this year, so I have already been for my autumn Covid booster and I have started wearing a good quality mask again on crowded public transport.
"When it comes to the NHS, it will depend on when the flu hits. If flu comes early, within the next month, the NHS could be in real trouble. However, if flu hits nearer the end of the year, when we predict the Covid wave to have subsided, the impact would be less."
New NHS data also shows hospital patients testing positive for Covid-19 in England has climbed to its highest level for two months.
A total of 9,631 people with coronavirus were in hospital as of 8am on October 5, according to NHS England. This is up 37 percent from 7,024 a week earlier and is the highest figure since August 3.
Patient numbers topped 14,000 in mid-July at the peak of the wave of infections caused by the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants of the virus, then fell steadily until mid-September.
Covid hospitalisations are highest in the South West where they have increased by 250 per cent since mid-September.
About two-thirds of patients in hospital who test positive for Covid-19 are being treated primarily for something else. But they need to be isolated from patients who do not have Covid, putting extra pressure on staff already struggling to clear a record backlog of treatment.
Professor Sheila Bird, biostatistician at the University of Cambridge, said: "Covid-mention deaths do not yet show a take-off in England and Wales but we may anticipate that this shall surely follow in the next couple of weeks."
Separate ONS data published today shows an estimated 2.3 million Brits (3.5 percent of the population) are now experiencing Long Covid - up from two million a month earlier.
More than a million people have had Long Covid for more than a year.
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