Turkey is at the centre of efforts to get millions of tonnes of grain from blocked Ukrainian ports onto world markets, to alleviate scarcity and curb soaring food prices. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Turkey this week for talks on the creation of a Black Sea corridor to facilitate the flow of grain.
Not long ago, ships carrying Ukrainian grain to global markets were a regular sight sailing through Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway. But not anymore.
With Russia's naval blockade of Ukraine – the world's fifth-largest grain supplier – prices are hitting record levels, threatening turmoil.
"In Lebanon in 2020, wheat imports were 75 percent from Ukraine," points out Yoruk Isik, a geopolitical analyst in Istanbul with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
"If you want to go buy wheat right now, you will pay lots of money, and maybe you won't even find it. So, in a country like Lebanon where there is already a financial crisis, you will have a major crisis.
"A couple of years ago, pitta price in Egypt went up like 3 euro cents or something, and there were street protests. So this crisis has the potential to evolve."
Appeals to respond
The threat of a global food crisis is prompting some NATO countries to call for intervention. Discussions Wednesday between Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, focused in part on creating a Black Sea corridor to allow Ukrainian grain to access world markets.
Ankara says such a deal would avert the risk of confrontation between NATO and Russia, given Russia's strong naval presence in the Black Sea.
"They have eight or ten submarines in the Black Sea and battleships," claims Mesut Casin, a Turkish Presidential advisor. "These battleships can fire cruise missiles. If they fire, what can we do? That time should be Nato Russia war; this is a big danger."
But Ankara talks Wednesday between the Turkish and Russian foreign ministers saw little progress in opening up a Black Sea grain corridor.
A key issue remains the removal of mines protecting the Ukrainian-held port of Odesa. Lavrov speaking at a joint press conference in Ankara, said it was down to Kyiv to resolve the situation.
"To solve this problem, the only thing needed is for the Ukrainians to let vessels out of their ports, either by de-mining them or by marking out safe corridors. Nothing more is required," said Lavrov.
But before removing the grain, Kyiv is looking for security guarantees that Russian forces won't launch an amphibious operation against the vital port of Odesa. Lavrov pledged Russia wouldn't attack, but Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba, dismissed the offer as "empty words."
Grain crisis 'leverage'
There is skepticism over Russia's commitment to easing the grain crisis, with analysts saying Moscow could be using it as leverage. Lavrov even claimed soaring wheat prices have little to do with the Ukrainian conflict.
If Ukrainian grain remains trapped, analysts say Ankara will face growing pressure to give NATO warships access to the Black Sea through Istanbul's Bosphorus waterway, which Turkey administers under the international Montreux Convention.
"Technically and legally, the straits are closed to the warships of the two belligerents, Ukraine and Russia," said Serhat Guvenc, professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. "The others, Turkey has asked them kindly not to send any warships."
"So, at one point, Turkey will be presented with a demand either by NATO or a NATO member to send warships into the war. Turkey's options are really narrowing in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war," continued Guvenc.
But Mustafa Aydin, president of the International Relations Council of Turkey, a research organization in Istanbul, says Turkey is determined to prevent new protagonists from entering the Black Sea and expanding the war.
"It also does not want to see an escalation of the insecurity situation by bringing in new forces like the NATO forces to balance the Russians because the calculation is that that would inevitably create a more dangerous situation for all Turkish security and also for the regional security," said Aydin.
Ankara is also well aware of how much Moscow wants to keep the Bosphorus closed to NATO ships, giving Turkey powerful leverage over Russia.
