When President Trump announced his tariff plan 18 months ago, he made it clear who he hoped would pay for the sharp end of the scheme: It wouldn’t be U.S. consumers; it would be foreign exporters who would “eat” the increased costs.
Indeed, following the tit-for-tat trade war between the U.S. and fellow economic superpower, China, President Trump warned the rival force was headed for “big trouble” if it didn’t engage in a “two-way street” of trade.
Yet while 100% of U.S. exports to China are reportedly subject to tariffs—and a respective 88.8% of Chinese exports are subject to U.S. tariffs—the world’s second-largest economy has continued to grow ahead of expectations, and has seemingly grown its export business with the rest of the world.
Goldman Sachs’s Hui Shan noted over the weekend that China’s Q3 real GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus expectation of 4.4%. Shan added that September activity data were firmer than expected, with industrial production growth accelerating to 5.5% on a year-on-year basis, and retail sales above expectations.
The growth target of 4.5% to 5% appears on track, noted Shan.
