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Fortune
Fortune
Jim Edwards

Trump’s tariffs are tipping Europe toward recession

Photo: WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 11: U.S. President Donald Trump answers questions while departing the White House on July 11, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump is scheduled to travel to Central Texas today to meet with first responders and local elected officials involved with the recovery process from last week's flash flooding event that has claimed more than 120 lives. Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images (Credit: Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
  • Trump’s tariff threats—potentially up to 30% on E.U. imports—may tip Europe into recession by late 2025, some analysts say. European exporters are heavily reliant on the U.S. market, especially in autos and pharmaceuticals. The U.S. is the largest trading market for both the E.U. and the U.K. Stock markets remain buoyant for now, seemingly on the assumption that deals will be struck lowering the rates.

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that he thinks the Fed should cut interest rates at the end of July because he thinks the U.S. economy’s “momentum has slowed significantly,” and he’s worried about unemployment rising.

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