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International Business Times
International Business Times
Politics
Bruce Golding

Trump Pollsters Predict 'Bump' Of Up To Three Points For Harris Following Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris walks on stage at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. (Credit: ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images)
Former President Donald Trump's pollsters expect that Vice President Kamala Harris will get a "bump" of 2 to 3 percentage points from the recently concluded Democratic National Convention.

Pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis said that Harris — who's leading Trump in most national polls — would likely score "another small (albeit temporary) bounce" in post-convention polling, according to a memo released Saturday by the Trump campaign.

"Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions," they wrote Thursday, the final day of the DNC. "So don't be surprised to see Harris get a temporary 2 to 3 point bump."

As of Saturday, Harris was leading Trump, 47.2% to 43.6%, according to ABC News' FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

It's unclear how long Fabrizio and Tunis expect Harris' polling bump to persist but they downplayed its long-term impact, citing post-convention leads held by Michael Dukakis, John McCain and Hillary Clinton.

"We all know how those ended up. These bumps do not last," they wrote.

The memo also said that "while the media is going to focus on the national polls, we need to keep our eye on the ball — that is the polling in our target states."

"Our goal is to get to 270 [Electoral College votes] and winning these states is how we do it," Fabrizio and Tunis wrote. "We'll let the media make mountains out of molehills, while we keep driving forward, sticking to our winning plan of getting President Trump re-elected."

The memo released Saturday followed one from July 23 in which Fabrizio said he expected a "Harris Honeymoon" that would boost her standing in the polls "over the next couple of weeks."

At that time, Fabrizio also predicted "largely positive" news coverage of Harris that "will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term."

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