FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — South Florida is now under a tropical storm watch, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. Eastern time update.
It’s guaranteed to be a wet weekend in South Florida as system approaching the state from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico now has a 90% chance of developing, according to the hurricane center.
Forecasters are anticipating that the system will become a tropical storm by Friday night. If it forms, it will be Tropical Storm Alex — the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2022.
But there’s some good news, too. The disturbance that was being watched near the Bahamas, off Florida’s east coast, remained at a near-zero chance of developing and was headed out to sea away from the U.S., as of Thursday afternoon.
Rain is the biggest threat from the system aiming toward Florida and could cause serious flooding, forecasters say.
“The bottom line is this system, as it moves north, will slowly organize, and it’s very possible we could have a depression perhaps as early as maybe late (Thursday) or first thing Friday,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
The low pressure system is expected to travel northeast toward Florida and could deliver as much as 8 to 12 inches of rain to some areas. The system is expected to cross Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean during the day on Saturday.
As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the system currently has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving north at 5 mph. It is currently located 75 miles north-northwest of Cozumel, Mexico, and 505 miles southwest of Fort Myers.
Tropical storm watches are also in effect for the west coast south of central Longboat Key, Lake Okeechobee, Florida Bay and six Cuban provinces. On the east side of Florida, the watch extends from the Brevard/Volusia county line to the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas.
Those watches mean the areas may experience tropical-storm-like weather in the next two days, according to the hurricane center.
The hurricane center, as of 5 p.m. Thursday, predicts the system’s wind speeds will reach a maximum of 50 mph by Sunday evening.
Forecasters are predicting the system to turn toward the northeast Friday and then move faster as it continues northeast Friday night and Saturday. It will move across the central and southern parts of Florida on Saturday, the center said.
A system officially becomes a tropical storm when its maximum sustained winds are between 39 mph and 73 mph. Systems become hurricanes when the maximum sustained winds are 74 mph or greater.
The upper-level winds could keep the system as a tropical depression or low-level tropical storm.
“As the system moves northward, it will be running to more vertical wind shear so that will probably limit how strong it will get, at least initially,” Kottlowski said.
“We kind of think the main thing that people need to focus on from this system is the rain, and it looks like the highest chance for flooding rainfall from this will be over the southern third of the state of Florida, so roughly anywhere from Naples to Vero Beach and on southward, that’s what appears to be at this point the most likely areas to see some very heavy rainfall.”
Kottlowski said if the system becomes tropical, the northeast to southeast quadrants will produce the heaviest rainfall.
“The more organized it is, the more concentrated it will bring heavy rainfall to sections of southern Florida,” he said. “But if it remains disorganized then there will be a much larger area that could see heavier rain. Maybe the rainfall is not as heavy, but you could still end up with several inches of rain over a much larger area.”
The National Weather Service said a flood watch could be issued Thursday night or Friday morning.
Rain is expected to begin locally Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday. The NWS said Thursday afternoon it has “high confidence” this system will bring heavy rain to parts of South Florida.
“These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys,” the NHC said.
This is a La Niña year, meaning water temperatures will be warmer than usual and there’s less wind shear to tear apart storms.
Warm water temperatures are an optimal factor in tropical storm and hurricane development. In mid-June of last year, Tropical Storm Claudette formed in the Gulf waters and came ashore in Louisiana.
Current water temperatures are about one to two degrees higher than average for this time of year, Sojda said, creating favorable conditions for the disturbance to develop.
Hurricane season officially starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Floridians can buy supplies to prepare for this hurricane season free of sales taxes through June 10. Pet supplies are now included in the list of tax-free items.
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