ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Bret formed in the Atlantic on Monday with a forecast track that sees it growing to hurricane strength as it barrels into the Caribbean this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
What was initially dubbed Tropical Depression Three in the NHC’s initial 11 a.m. ET advisory spun up into named-storm status by 5 p.m. ET, with the center of Bret located 1,295 miles east of the southern Windward Islands generating maximum sustained winds of 40 mph while the system heads west at 21 mph.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 45 miles.
The forecast track has the system growing into a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday.
“Bret is forecast to strengthen and move across the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves,” according to NHC forecasters.
The track sees the center of the storm potentially moving over Caribbean islands like Dominica, Martinique or Guadeloupe with sustained winds of 80 mph and gusts up to 100 mph.
The long-term forecast could see the system turn toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
“There is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the cyclone,” the forecast said. “A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more westward into the Caribbean.”
The NHC also began tracking a second tropical wave following this system’s track.
In its 2 p.m. ET tropical outlook, the NHC said the system located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde islands continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.
“Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” the outlook stated.
The NHC gives the system a 40% chance of forming in the next two days, and 50% in the next seven days.
If it grows in strength it could become Tropical Storm Cindy.
The NHC determined the year’s first storm was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, which was followed by Tropical Storm Arlene that formed earlier this month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
The official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
_____
