Martin Kettle considers it uncertain whether Donald Trump’s tariffs will work, while noting that even Keynes supported their occasional use (Perilous and chaotic, Trump’s ‘liberation day’ endangers the world’s broken economy – and him, 2 April). Such an open-minded view risks overoptimism. Keynes’s support for the idea of tariffs was limited to specific short-term need, as in protection of fledgling industry. But Keynes knew well the harm of tariffs as long-term economic policy.
Far from being uncertain, it is inevitable that Trump’s tariffs will fail. The deep interconnectedness of international supply chains means Americans will see a swift rise in inflation (that key growth-killer Trump campaigned to reduce) as indispensable worldwide component imports push up the price of domestic US goods and the reverse is repeated around the world.
