The Bureau of Labor Statistics job report for June contained a pivotal number that may well raise the first convincing statistical signpost that the U.S. economy has made the turn and is heading for a recession. That's the view of two top economists, one from Wall Street, the other from academia, who closely watch the employment figures to spot enduring trends, as well as weigh what the Fed-engineered money supply shrinkage, and apparent determination to keep hiking rates, foretell for the path forward. "This jobs report harbored the first indicator that the U.S. will slow down a lot, and by our forecast enter a recession, in the second half of 2023," says Eugenio Aleman, chief economist for brokerage Raymond James. Adds Will Luther, an economics professor at Florida Atlantic University, "When the jobs numbers are suddenly pointing towards weakness and rapidly falling inflation, the Fed's plans to keep over-tightening puts the economy on dangerous ground."
