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Jamie Cross, Assistant Professor of Econometrics & Statistics, Melbourne Business School

The UAE is leaving the OPEC oil cartel. What could that mean for oil prices?

OPEC Oil UAE Petroleum United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced that on May 1, it will leave both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the larger OPEC+ group. By withdrawing, the UAE will now be able to independently decide how much oil it produces and sells.

This matters – and not just because the UAE is one of the world’s top ten oil producers. The country also has the capacity to increase its output by about one million barrels per day.

So, if the UAE chooses to ramp up production, could it put downward pressure on the price of oil once shipments can resume through the Strait of Hormuz?

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