Fantasy fans are always looking for that elusive, yet attainable, perfect draft. You know, the one where all your favorite breakout and sleeper picks fall into your lap. I’m looking for that fantasy “nirvana” too, so I decided to create my perfect fantasy draft scenario based on the average draft position data (ADP) from my friends over at FantasyData.
In this exercise, I drafted from the last overall spot in both a 10- and 12-team league. The rule I drafted by is that I had to stay within two spots of ADP per round. So, if I’m at pick No. 20, for example, I couldn’t draft Drake London because his ADP is No. 17. On the flip side, I did allow myself to draft any player available beyond ADP. That means for the No. 20 pick, I could draft anyone as low as No. 18 and anyone with an ADP higher than 20.
Here's how my perfect drafts came out!
Perfect drafts from other draft spots: First Overall Pick | Sixth Overall Pick
Note: Each team finished with two quarterbacks, five running backs, five wide receivers, two tight ends, one kicker, and one defense.
Round 1
10 Team – 1.10. A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles: Despite stumbling in the stat sheets down the stretch, Brown still finished last season fifth in points among wideouts. He’ll remain the top option in the Eagles pass attack, and Kellen Moore taking over the new offensive coordinator should benefit Brown, too.
12 Team – 1.12. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions: Gibbs was a star for fantasy fans in the second half of his rookie season, finishing as the RB5 over the final 10 weeks. He’ll still lose some work to David Montgomery, but Gibbs is so explosive that he doesn’t need a ton of touches to post strong totals for fantasy fans.
Round 2
10 Team – 2.11. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams: Nacua is coming off one of the best seasons of all time for a rookie receiver, setting a record with 1,486 yards. That helped vault him to a WR5 finish, not to mention a top-15 label for 2024 drafts. The presence of Cooper Kupp is a concern, but Nacua is worth the risk.
12 Team – 2.13. Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets: Wilson has the tools to become a top-end wide receiver, so it’s no surprise to see him being picked in the top 15 (and in the first round in some mocks). As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, Wilson should have a career year both for the Jets and fantasy players.
Round 3
10 Team – 3.30. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: Sometimes a player is just too good a value to pass up, and that’s the case with Evans. A future Hall of Famer, he’s posted 1,000-plus yards in every year of his NFL career. Evans was also the WR7 just last season, and he’s the third wideout on this team.
12 Team – 3.36. DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks: Metcalf posted 1,114 yards and eight scores last season, and I think he can be even better in 2024. That’s due to the presence of new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who led the Washington Huskies to top-five passing finishes in each of the last two years.
Round 4
10 Team – 4.31. Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers: Jacobs is coming off a down season, but he’s also just one year removed from leading the NFL in rushing yards. Still in the prime of his career and now in a potentially explosive Packers offense, Jacobs should rebound and turn into a nice bargain in fantasy drafts.
12 Team – 4.37. Devonta Smith, WR, Eagles: Smith has been a top-10 and top-20 fantasy wideout in each of the last two seasons, and that sort of trend should continue with Moore at the helm. With a combined 176 catches in his last two seasons, Smith is a WR2 who is the third wideout on this team.
Round 5
10 Team – 5.50. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: Talk about value! Kamara, whose ADP is No. 57 (at least at the time of this research), will be the RB2 for a fantasy team that started with three wideouts and Jacobs. Kamara is a year older, but he was still third among backs in points per game average last season.
12 Team – 5.60. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots: Stevenson was a disappointment last season, but that didn’t stop the Patriots from signing him to a nice extension. Even with Antonio Gibson now in the fold, the big man still projects as a No. 2 fantasy back. He could turn into a nice draft bargain, too.
Round 6
10 Team – 6.51. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills: I don’t typically take a tight end in the first six rounds, but I couldn’t pass on Kincaid after I started with three wideouts and two backs. The Utah product could legitimately lead the Bills receivers in targets this season, making him a prime fantasy breakout candidate.
12 Team – 6.61. James Conner, RB, Cardinals: Conner isn’t the most durable runner, but he showed at the end of last season that he can still be a fantasy star. In fact, only Breece Hall had more points among backs in the final five weeks. That makes him an attractive No. 3 back or flex option in 2024 leagues.
Round 7
10 Team – 7.70. James Conner, RB, Cardinals: For all the reasons I took Conner in the previous round for the 12-team league, he also made sense as the third back or flex option for this 10-team league as well.
12 Team – 7.84. Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys: The Cowboys always seem to have a solid fantasy tight end, and Ferguson is the latest in the line. He finished last season as the TE9, recording an impressive 71 receptions for 761 yards while scoring five touchdowns. He’s a potential bargain as a ninth rounder.
Round 8
10 Team – 8.71. Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals: Burrow has the upside to be a top-five fantasy quarterback in what should remain an explosive Bengals offense. He’s entering training camp at 100 percent, and he’ll have star wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal. Burrow could be a steal.
12 Team – 8.85. Zack Moss, RB, Bengals: My perfect 12-team roster started with a runner and three wide receivers, and I’m thrilled to get Moss as the third back on the roster. Now the lead running back in Cincinnati, I can Moss easily finishing as a top-20 runner. I’ll take him at this point in drafts all day.
Round 9
10 Team – 9.90. Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins: Regression is coming for Mostert, who scored 21 touchdowns last season. That’s more than he had in his first eight NFL seasons combined! However, that projected regression is baked into his ADP, and I’ll gladly grab him as a No. 3 fantasy back in drafts.
12 Team – 9.108. Curtis Samuel, WR, Bills: The Bills wide receiver group has been almost completely revamped, and Samuel might be the best of the new bunch. A veteran wideout, he could be in the top two or three in targets in the offense with Kincaid and rookie Keon Coleman. He’s a solid sleeper here.
Round 10
10 Team – 10.91. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks: Smith-Njigba is among my favorite wide receiver sleepers heading into this season, so getting him in the 10th round as my No. 4 fantasy wideout is quite the value in my opinion. I can see him pushing for a top-30 spot at his position, ahead of Tyler Lockett.
12 Team – 10.109. Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers: The QB6 in fantasy leagues last year, Purdy continued the trend of a second-year quarterback having a breakout season. Playing in the offense of head coach Kyle Shanahan and with oodles of weapons, Purdy could again be a great value in a lot of 2024 drafts.
Round 11
10 Team – 11.110. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders: I love Daniels, as you’ve probably noticed from these “perfect” drafts. He’ll be a matchup-based alternative to Burrow on this roster, and that’s the worst case.
12 Team – 11.132. Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons: I’m going back-to-back quarterbacks here, pairing Purdy with Cousins. Purdy was a top-10 quarterback last season, and Cousins was on that pace before getting injured.
Round 12
10 Team – 12.111. Curtis Samuel, WR, Bills: As I mentioned earlier, Samuel has a chance to be a nice sleeper in fantasy league this season. Catching passes from a star quarterback in Josh Allen doesn’t hurt, either.
12 Team – 12.133. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers: Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith likes to use his tight ends, so I can see Freiermuth rebounding from a porous 2023 campaign and re-emerge in 2024.
Round 13
10 Team – 13.130. Pat Freiermuth, TE, Steelers: See above. This team already has a star tight end in Kincaid, so Freiermuth will be a backup. However, he could become fantasy trade bait if he can return to form.
12 Team – 13.156. Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers: I’m on record picking Vidal to take over as the Chargers' lead back at some point in his rookie season. That makes him a solid value this late in drafts.
Round 14
10 Team – 14.131. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers: Lloyd is a rookie out of USC who is (at least for now) the favorite to back up Jacobs. That made him an attractive choice in the 14th round as a potential handcuff.
12 Team – 14.157. Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers: Thielen won’t be the WR17 like he was a season ago, but he’ll still see his share of targets in Carolina. Also, grabbing him as a WR5 makes Thielen much less of a risk.
Round 15
10 Team – 15.150. Cowboys defense: The Cowboys fielded one of the top two fantasy defenses in the league last season, and this unit was on the board based on ADP data. So, let’s go with the Pokes once here.
12 Team – 15.180. Browns defense: Again, I’m searching for the best defense I can find at this late stage of the draft, and the Browns were that defensive unit in this case.
Round 16
10 Team – 16.151. Harrison Butker, K, Chiefs: Butker finished sixth in points among kickers last season, and he’ll always be a threat to finish in the top five behind what will remain an explosive offense.
Final Rosters
10-Team:
- QB: Burrow, Daniels
- RB: Jacobs, Kamara, Conner, Mostert, Lloyd
- WR: Brown, Nacua, Evans, Smith-Njigba, Samuel
- TE: Kincaid, Freiermuth
- K: Butker
- D/ST: Cowboys
12-Team:
- QB: Purdy, Cousins
- RB: Gibbs, Stevenson, Conner, Moss, Vidal
- WR: Wilson, Metcalf, D. Smith, Samuel, Thielen
- TE: Ferguson, Freiermuth
- K: Moody
- D/ST: Browns
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Perfect Fantasy Football Draft With the No. 12 Overall Pick.
