When the Chicago Bears traded the first overall pick in the 2023 draft to the Carolina Panthers for the Panthers’ ninth and 61st overall pick in 2023, Carolina’s first-round pick in 2023, a second-round pick in 2024, and receiver D.J. Moore, the only part of that equation that is a mystery is Moore.
Because through five NFL seasons, as much as he’s impressed at times, Moore hasn’t been in an offense, and with a quarterback, that would allow him to be all he can be. We could almost say that Moore (at least to date) is the next Allen Robinson.
You may remember that going back to his time at Penn State, Robinson never had a good quarterback — from Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenberg in college, to Blake Bortles and Chad Henne in four seasons with the Jaguars, and Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and… Justin Fields in four seasons with the Bears. Robinson thought that he finally had his escape hatch in Matthew Stafford last season until the Los Angeles Rams’ offense went kaput, and Stafford played in just nine games.
Things haven’t been much better for Moore, selected in the first round of the 2018 draft out of Maryland. Moore’s primary college quarterbacks were Perry Hills, Shane Rowe, Tyrrell Pigrome, Max Bortenschlager, Ryan Brand, and Kasim Hill. Not exactly a Murderers’ Row. Then, with the Panthers, he had one season of Good Cam Newton in 2018, mostly Kyle Allen in 2019 when Newton was injured, Teddy Bridgewater and P.J. Walker in 2020 after Newton was out the door, Newton back in the door along with Walker and Sam Darnold in 2021, and Darnold, Walker, and Baker Mayfield in 2022.
In a word, yikes.
Last season, the aggregate Carolina Panthers quarterback completed 267 of 457 passes (58.4%) for 3,246 yards (7.1 yards per attempt), 16 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and a passer rating of 80.2. Carolina’s Passing EPA of -63.04 was ninth-worst in the NFL, and the team was also ninth-worst in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt at 5.5.
We will get into what Moore is walking into with his new team, because as it stands, the passing stats aren’t much better. In some cases, they’re worse. But the point of this particular article is to look at what Moore can offer any team, especially a team with a quarterback that can do more than tread water.
And in that environment, Moore could be more of an asset than he’s been able to show. Last season, he caught 63 passes on 118 targets for 888 yards and seven touchdowns. He ranked 59th in DVOA and 67th in DYAR among qualifying receivers, and when you factor in his 10 rushing attempts for 53 yards, Moore’s total of 941 yards from scrimmage was the worst of his NFL career.
If you look at the numbers, and you didn’t watch a lot of Carolina Panthers football last season, you may wonder what the big deal is — why the Bears reportedly made the acquisition of Moore a deal-breaker in this deal. As always, the tape tells the story — both good and bad — so let’s start there.
Winning over the top.
Despite the quarterback liabilities all around him, Moore was actually one of the NFL’s most productive deep receivers last season, with 14 catches of 20 or more air yards on 30 targets for 436 yards and four touchdowns. That’s the same number of deep receptions as A.J. Brown and Stefon Diggs had, and only Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Davante Adams caught more.
Only Pickens had a below-average quarterback in Steelers rookie Kenny Pickett, and Pickens is an absolute physical freak from another planet, so that’s where we are in the discussion with Moore. He was not elevated by his quarterbacks at any time as a deep receiver, and he was still able to strike fear into the hearts of every secondary the Panthers faced.
When Carolina’s quarterbacks threw the ball anywhere near Moore with any sort of timing on deep stuff (a mixed bag, as we will see), Moore was dynamic enough to make the most of that. On this 47-yard completion against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17, Moore got off the line with tremendous speed and just turned cornerback Jamel Dean around in the Bucs’ Cover-3.
Dean, by the way, stands as our second-best upcoming free agent in the 2023 class, so this isn’t Moore beating up on some random dude. That Moore still had to slow down to catch the ball that Sam Darnold threw under pressure from Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea reinforces a point we’re going to make frequently in this article.
Speaking of Moore getting the best of good cornerbacks, here’s his 52-yard reception against Patrick Surtain and the Denver Broncos in Week 12. Surtain did a very nice job of matching Moore through this deep vertical route, but Moore had the wherewithal to separate just enough at the catch point.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields is still very much a work in progress as a passer, but Moore has never had a quarterback with an arm like this. Fields’ deep ball creates separation, where Moore has had to do that pretty much by himself throughout his NFL career.
Creating space for his quarterbacks.
There are reasons that Steve Smith Sr. has called Moore his “spirit animal,” and that starts here. What Fields hasn’t had in his two NFL seasons is a receiver who can consistently create separation for him with short-area quickness, understanding and exploitation of coverages, and acceleration to openings. Now, Fields has just that kind of receiver in Moore.
This 29-yard catch against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 was predicated on Moore nuking cornerback Cornell Armstrong on a quick angle route, and that’s exactly what Moore did. If you want to match Moore step-for-step in man coverage, you’ll need better recovery ability than this.
Moore also has a fine understanding of how to peek into openings in coverage, which will help Fields a lot. Against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5, the Panthers did a nice job of stretching San Francisco’s Cover-2 with this three-level flood concept to the right, and Moore knew exactly when and where to get wide open. From there, it was up to Moore to make it a 27-yard play with his athleticism.
This 21-yard catch against the Buccaneers in Week 7 showed how well Moore can extend his route to adapt to scramble rules. If this works well with P.J. Walker, imagine how it’ll go with Fields.
Overcoming the quarterback problem.
Watching Moore’s incompletions, which you have to do when a receiver catches just 57.8% of his passes, is an exercise in extreme frustration. Between Darnold’s chronic lateness throwing the ball (thus throwing his receivers closed over and over), Mayfield’s erraticism, and whatever Walker was doing… well, let’s just say that you get more and more annoyed as you observe this stuff.
LOLZ pic.twitter.com/LoUmi2Lt3T
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 11, 2023
OH MY GOD THROW THE BALL pic.twitter.com/KXGT0MmFxD
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) March 11, 2023
So... what can the Bears do with him?
Well, that’s the $61.88 million question — the total of the contract extension Moore signed with the Panthers in 2022, including $41.61 million guaranteed, which is now on the Bears’ books. It’s a very team-friendly contract given Moore’s level of play, and since the Bears have the gross national product of France in cap space, it’s not a problem at all.
On the surface, it looks as if Moore has been traded from one quarterback disaster to another. In his second NFL season, Justin Fields completed 192 of 318 passes (60.4%) for 2,242 yards (7.1 YPA), 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 85.2. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts in 2022, Fields’ Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 4.6 was the NFL’s fourth-worst, behind three backups — Colt McCoy, Dam Ehlinger, and Skylar Thompson. Fields’ Passing EPA of -110.64 was by far the NFL’s worst — Davis Mills was second-worst at -80.27.
The arguments for Fields’ development are many. 2021 was a waste year because… well, Matt Nagy, and Fields was getting the hang of a new offense with a group of receivers who wouldn’t scare anybody. And there are elements of a passing game that Fields showed he could run at a high level. He was much more efficient in boot-action plays, especially when receivers flooded his vision at multiple levels. We have also seen Moore excel with these ideas.
Perhaps this is also the season in which Fields becomes more comfortable with passing with pre-snap motion, and passing instead of running in RPO concepts?
The most obvious conclusion we can come to here is that Justin Fields needs to improve, and he’s going to need help to do it. Friday’s trade was a major first step in that process.
