The Bulls are no stranger to staring across the room at lady luck, and for their flirtations actually receiving a Rose in return.
First name Derrick to be exact.
It was 15 years ago that the organization overcame a 1.7% chance to land the No. 1 overall selection in the NBA Draft Lottery, leading to nabbing the hometown hero in Rose and going on a legit playoff run for the first time post-Michael Jordan Era.
The ultimate defiant moment in the history of the lottery?
Almost.
Only Orlando overcame longer odds, hitting the top pick with a 1.52% chance back in 1993, and making the jump from 11th to drafting Chris Webber.
Considering those two scenarios, 1.8% chance suddenly doesn’t seem so ominous.
That’s where the Bulls stand going into Tuesday night’s draft lottery — in the 11th spot with a 1.8% chance to move up to No. 1 and undoubtedly select a 7-foot-4 organizational game-changer in center Victor Wembanyama.
The French import wouldn’t just impact the current roster blueprints for executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas. Wembanyama is the blueprint. The height, the ball-handling ability, the outside shooting, the shot-blocking … if Zach LaVine thought it was tough playing Robin to DeMar DeRozan’s Batman, he’d quickly be pushed to third on the priority list when French Superman walked into the Advocate Center.
Oui oui.
“He’s a freak,’’ LaVine said of Wembanyama back in January, after seeing him courtside when the Bulls played the Pistons in Paris.
Asked if he had checked out any of the highlights of the 19-year-old, LaVine responded, “Oh, yeah, we all have.’’
And Wembanyama was not the only prospect worthy of highlights that could change the direction of the team.
While point guard Scoot Henderson is nowhere near the immediate impact that Wembanyama would be, there are some comparisons to Rose that have been thrown Henderson’s way as the likely No. 2 overall pick.
For the Bulls to land there, however, it would be defying 2% odds.
How about a 6-9 scoring machine in Alabama’s Brandon Miller? The Bulls have a 2.2% chance to land at No. 3 and draft Miller. Considering DeRozan only has one more season on his contract, having Miller waiting in the wings to take over that position would make Karnisovas’ life a little bit easier.
As for hitting on No. 4, the Bulls’ odds are 2.5%.
Now the rub.
All these long shots are fun to “what if.’’ Karnisovas & Co., however, have to deal in what is.
When the Bulls acquired Nikola Vucevic from the Magic back in 2021, they also had to send draft assets out the door. Orlando received No. 8 back in the 2021 draft, and are still owed the 2023 pick top-four protected.
Brass tacks?
The chances of the Bulls landing anywhere in the top four and retaining the pick is just 8.5%. The likely scenario — at least by the numbers — is the Bulls have a 77.6% chance to stick in their current No. 11 spot, handing the pick over to the Magic.
Not the only draft emptiness that could be felt.
Because of the 2019 deal that sent Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis to the Wizards for Otto Porter, the Bulls don’t own a 2023 second-round pick, either.
Ah Jabari Parker. The trade that keeps on hurting.
