Baby boomers, members of the wealthiest generation in history, are beginning to retire in record numbers. Though much has been made about the effect of that on workplaces, its effect on the economy could be even more profound.
Despite years of speculation over the next possible recession, the U.S. has avoided a slowdown largely due to consumer spending—and that's being driven by older, wealthier Americans and their leisure activities, Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, writes in the Financial Times.
"The baby boom generation has started to retire with a record $76 [trillion] in net worth," Yardeni writes. "They are spending on restaurants, cruises, traveling, and healthcare. All these services industries have been expanding their payrolls, thus boosting real incomes, and fueling more spending."
Yardeni isn't the first to note the baby boomer bump (and he's made the point before). Older Americans have benefitted from outsize gains in the stock and housing markets since the start of the pandemic, allowing them to spend more and more. In fact, Americans 65 or older accounted for around 22% of consumer spending in 2022, according to the Labor Department, the highest share on record. Millennials, on the other hand, are much more likely to be spending their money on necessities like housing and childcare, according to data from Bank of America.
As boomers have accrued more wealth, they've also been less impacted, generally speaking, by economic factors that are curbing spending for younger generations, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate campaign: Most have locked in their mortgage interest rate (or paid off their home completely) and aren't looking to make other purchases that require borrowing; rather, they are spending in the categories Yardeni noted, like travel and entertainment. Boomers also tend to carry less consumer debt and aren't burdened with student loan repayments.
Some of the growth in spending can also be attributed to the 8.7% cost-of-living increase in boomers' Social Security checks, the largest bump in 40 years.
Not all gains are universal, of course, and not all older Americans are able to spend freely, especially those living on a fixed income. But many have been able to take advantage of the significant gains in their stock portfolios as the market has hit record high after record high over the past few years: Research from Visa shows stock market wealth boosts discretionary spending, and those aged 55 and older hold the vast majority of all household wealth in the country, around 75%.
"The baby boomers are the richest retiring generation we’ve ever had," Yardeni said previously. "Not everybody is well-off, but we’ve never had a retiring generation with this much wealth. That’s one of the major reasons why the economy is strong."
