Sometimes the best thing to do when making prop bets is to go against the grain. So, this week, we do just that – we go against one of the top quarterbacks and the league’s most prolific fantasy scorer not hitting their numbers, a dynamic yet underachieving running back having his best game in a month, a running back who needs just seven yards to hit the Over, and midlevel tight end scoring a touchdown.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
5
Dallas Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson scores a touchdown (+155)
It took time for Ferguson to adequately replace Dalton Schultz, and he is still a work in progress, but he and Dak Prescott are building the same type of rapport Prescott had with Schultz. In his last two games, Ferguson has emerged as the No. 2 guy behind CeeDee Lamb, catching 11 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys are a massive 17-point favorite, and the expectation is that Dallas will score four or five touchdowns. If that happens, one of them should go to Fergie.
4
San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey UNDER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
Anyone who bets against McCaffrey does so to their own peril. McCaffrey is going to be a defensive focus of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Given the recent struggles of Brock Purdy (the 49ers have scored 17 points in each of their last three games), Jacksonville is likely going to force Purdy to beat them by making running lanes tight for McCaffrey. He’ll likely end up with 100 total yards, but it may be 50 rushing, 50 receiving. This is a big ask that may require close to 15 rush attempts to achieve.
3
Cleveland Browns RB Kareem Hunt OVER 6.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Under on this bet is -120, so the Vegas smarts are saying this won’t happen – one catch for seven yards. This is a “garbage time” bet, but one that can cash at any time during the game. A blitz and a sack-avoiding pass checks the box for a win. A prevent defense from the Baltimore Ravens in the event of 20-point deficit-related throw to the sideline covers this number. There’s not a lot of action on this one, which makes it good. Tune in after the game to see if you won.
2
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow UNDER 279.5 passing yards (-115)
Burrow has topped this number in the last two games but those were against the 49ers and Buffalo Bills. The coaching staff came in with the plan that the offense needed to come out throwing out of necessity. The Bengals don’t have to come out throwing to beat Houston; the Texans defense is no joke and can do its part. Joe Mixon could get 20 carries in this game, and Cincy will be without Tee Higgins, which makes hitting 280 yards or more for Burrow that much more difficult.
1
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-115)
Robinson is an incredibly talented player who, by coaching design, has seen his growth stunted. He hasn’t had more than 14 carries since Week 2 – when he ran for 124 yards. The Cardinals are welcoming back a very rusty Kyler Murray and the Atlanta Falcons‘ goal is to keep him off the field for long stretches of time. The best way to do that is to saddle up Robinson and ride. The Falcons have resisted it, but it’s time.
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