West Ham United are being backed by data analysts FiveThirtyEight to avoid relegation from the Premier League this season.
The Hammers have been in and out of the drop zone this term as they continue to struggle to recapture the same form that brought back-to-back top-seven finishes in the last two years.
A 2-0 defeat away at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday pushed David Moyes’ side back into the bottom three after relegation rivals Everton and Bournemouth won against Leeds United and Wolverhampton Wanderers respectively the day before.
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Defeat at Spurs, which followed a four-game unbeaten run in all competitions, has left the Hammers 18th in the Premier League table after 23 games but only one point separates them from safety. Despite that setback, FiveThirtyEight’s latest supercomputer prediction has Moyes’ boys avoiding relegation come May. Their predicted league table after 38 games has West Ham finishing 14th with 40 points and a 19% probability of them being relegated.
Southampton, currently bottom of the Premier League table, are expected to stay where they are despite claiming a 1-0 win against Chelsea on Saturday. FiveThirtyEight has put a 66% probability of Saints being relegated and they predict Bournemouth and Everton will join them in the Championship next term. Leeds have been tipped to avoid the drop by a single point, with Nottingham Forest and Wolves finishing just behind the Hammers in the table.
FiveThirtyEight simulate a team's remaining league matches 20,000 times using weighted probabilities for each result. Every week the table is updated based on a side's form and prior results, with those on winning streaks seeing improved forecasts and those on a poor run subsequently penalised.
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