Wrexham’s first Championship campaign in 43 years is shaping up for a dramatic finish that will determine the team’s playoff fate.
After a dismal start to April knocked the Red Dragons’ out of the playoff places, back-to-back wins have once again fueled their promotion dreams. Phil Parkinson’s men toppled Stoke City and then Oxford United to reclaim sixth place with two games left to play.
Except seventh-place Hull City remain level on points with Wrexham, which means the Welsh outfit cannot afford any blunders to close out the season. A perfect end will be anything but easy, considering they are heading to newly crowned champions Coventry City at the weekend, before ending their campaign against playoff contenders Middlesbrough.
Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Red Dragons’ chances of securing a place in the Championship playoffs.
Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Championship Playoff Race
| Pos. | Team | Current Points | Expected Points | Playoff Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Millwall | 79 | 82.58 | 57.08 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town | 76 | 82.15 | 51.82 |
| 4 | Southampton | 76 | 79.23 | 93.22 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 73 | 78.45 | 97.58 |
| 6 | Hull City | 70 | 72.73 | 48.44 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 70 | 72.40 | 48.46 |
| 8 | Derby County | 66 | 68.80 | 2.68 |
Atop the table, Coventry City have already secured their long-awaited Premier League return. Millwall are in pole position to finish second and become the second team automatically promoted, but Ipswich Town are putting the pressure on. Opta predicts both teams to finish with around 82 points, but gives the current runners-up the edge.
Whichever team falls short gets the consolation of competing in the playoffs, alongside the clubs that finish fourth, fifth and sixth. The supercomputer rates in-form Southampton and Middlesbrough to easily qualify, giving the former 93.22% odds and the latter 97.58% odds of keeping their Premier League dreams alive.
The big battle comes between Hull and Wrexham for the final playoff spot. Despite the Red Dragons currently sitting in sixth place, they are pegged to drop to seventh come the end of the season by Opta. The Tigers are predicted to make the playoffs instead.
The margins are incredibly minuscule, though, which should give fans plenty of hope. Hull is expected to finish with 72.73 points compared to the Red Dragons’ 72.40. There is also only 0.02 separating their playoff percentages.
One swing in the final two games of the season could upend the predictions and see Wrexham sneak into the playoffs, but only if they win both of their remaining games.
When Can Wrexham Secure a Place in the Championship Playoffs?
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Since there are only two games left in the season, Wrexham will likely have to wait until the final matchday to find out their fate. It could come down to a photo-finish between the Red Dragons and Hull for sixth place.
The good news for fans is that both teams kick off their final matches of the season the same time (12:30 p.m. BST / 7:30 a.m. ET / 4:30 a.m. PT), so they will know once the final whistle sounds on Saturday, May 2 whether the Red Dragons did enough to snag a place in the playoffs.
Should both Wrexham and Hull end the season level on points, as they are now, goal difference will be the difference-maker. At the time of writing, Parkinson’s men have the edge with a +6 goal difference compared to the Tigers’ +4.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Supercomputer Predicts Outcome of Wrexham’s Playoff Push Ahead of Coventry Clash.
