Supercomputer prediction makes for grim reading after…

Supercomputer prediction makes for grim reading after Nottingham Forest's miserable run of form

A supercomputer has predicted where Nottingham Forest will finish in the Premier League.

The Reds have quickly discovered just how brutal the top-flight can be amid a miserable run of form on their return to the division. After an encouraging start to the campaign, they have now suffered four defeats in a row.

A particular worry for boss Steve Cooper will be, in his words, the “self-inflicted” nature of leads being thrown away against fellow promoted sides Bournemouth and Fulham. The Welshman has plenty of work to do during the international break to try to stop the rot.

Trying to integrate a raft of summer signings and get a new-look squad to gel is a challenge, as is settling upon his best team. But Cooper has proved adept at unifying groups in the past and has previously demonstrated his tactical acumen.

There is still a long way to go in the campaign, with the hope that Forest can get better. Supercomputers tend not to take such nuances into account, however.

Data experts FiveThirtyEight have predicted the Reds will finish bottom of the table with 30 points. They say there is a 68 percent chance Cooper’s side will be relegated, with a 37 percent chance they will end the season in 20th spot. The chances of Forest finishing 17th are put at eight percent.

Their predictions are based on their Soccer Power Index, which, they say, are “our best estimate of a team’s overall strength”. They add: “In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.

“These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points - a win is worth three points, a tie worth one point, and a loss worth zero points - the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”

Here’s how the final table looks, based on their data. A team’s current points tally is included in brackets.

Predicted final Premier League table:

1. Manchester City (17 points) - 87 points

2. Liverpool (9 points) - 75 points

3. Arsenal (18 points) - 71 points

4. Tottenham Hotspur (17 points) - 69 points

5. Chelsea (10 points) - 64 points

6. Manchester United (12 points) - 61 points

7. Brighton and Hove Albion (13 points) - 60 points

8. Newcastle United (8 points) - 51 points

9. Crystal Palace (6 points) - 48 points

10. Brentford (9 points) - 48 points

11. Aston Villa (7 points) - 48 points

12. West Ham United (4 points) - 45 points

13. Leeds United (8 points) - 45 points

14. Fulham (11 points) - 44 points

15. Southampton (7 points) - 42 points

16. Wolverhampton Wanderers (6 points) - 42 points

17. Everton (7 points) - 41 points

18. Leicester City (1 point) - 41 points

19. Bournemouth (8 points) - 35 points

20. Nottingham Forest (4 points) - 30 points

However, if Forest want any extra encouragement that the data experts don’t always get it right, they need only look at last season. Heading into the final 10 games, FiveThirtyEight said the Reds had only an 18 percent chance of securing promotion, forecasting they would finish sixth.

This time last year, before Cooper’s appointment, FiveThirtyEight had Forest down to finish 21st in the Championship with 50 points. A change in fortunes after the international break would no doubt alter the predictions as they are updated after every round of fixtures.

Where will Forest finish in the table? Have your say in the comments below

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