The mists are lifting and Sunderland now have a clear picture of what they need on the final day of the Championship season to book a play-off place. Blackburn Rovers' 1-1 draw against Luton Town last night saw the Lancashire side play their game in hand of their rivals, which has removed some of the uncertainty.
And as the Championship gears up for Monday's finale, there are still five teams in the race for the two available play-off slots behind Luton, who will finish third, and Middlesbrough, who will finish fourth. Fifth-placed Coventry City are in pole position to book one of those play-off places with 69 points, with Millwall sitting sixth on 68 points, and then Sunderland, West Brom, and Blackburn are all locked on 66 points.
Of all the contenders, Coventry (+12) have the best goal difference, followed by Sunderland (+10), Millwall (+8), West Brom (+7) and then Blackburn (-3). And, should it come to it, Sunderland have scored more goals than any of their rivals with 65, compared to Coventry and West Brom (both 57), Millwall (54), and Blackburn (48).
READ MORE: Sunderland boss Tony Mowbray sets out possible return date for Dan Ballard
Final day fixtures
Preston vs Sunderland
Middlesbrough vs Coventry City
Millwall vs Blackburn Rovers
Swansea City vs West Bromwich Albion
What do Sunderland need to finish in the play-offs?
First things first, Sunderland must beat Preston. Without that, everything else is irrelevant.
Assuming they clear that hurdle, they need one of two things to happen - either Boro to beat Coventry, or for Millwall to drop points against Blackburn.
If Coventry lose, Sunderland would finish above the Sky Blues either on goal difference or by virtue of goals scored, given that the Black Cats go into the final game having scored eight more goals than Mark Robins' side, which would be enough to send them into the play-offs.
If Coventry pick up the point they need to guarantee a play-off place, all eyes will then be on the game between Millwall and Blackburn at The Den.
If Millwall draw or lose, Sunderland would finish above them either by a point or on goal difference and take the final play-off place.
Simple as that, then
Well, almost.
As ever, there is always one unlikely scenario that could disrupt things.
In this case, it would need West Brom to win at Swansea by a margin four goals greater than Sunderland's margin of victory at Preston.
That would see the Baggies overtake Sunderland on goal difference.
If that did happen, Sunderland would need both Coventry to lose AND Millwall to drop points to reach the play-offs alongside Albion.
Seems unlikely
Yes. But more likely than Blackburn defeating Millwall by at least 15 goals, which is the only way they could finish above Sunderland if the Black Cats win at Preston.
Are Blackburn out of it, then?
No. But they would need to beat Millwall and - assuming they don't rack up a cricket score - also for both Sunderland and West Brom to drop points.
READ NEXT
- Tony Mowbray on how Sunderland's youthful squad have 're-energised an old guy'
- Ambition the issue at Sunderland's last-day opponents Preston, says Lillywhites boss Ryan Lowe
- Sunderland must repeat last season's final day heroics to reach play-offs, says Patrick Roberts
- Sunderland's thrilling comeback against Watford keeps play-off dream alive to the very last day
- Tony Mowbray on how his 'trust' in Sunderland's talented young players is being repaid
