Soybean price action is down 1 to 2 cents so far on Thursday morning. Futures posted 6 to 17 ¼ cent gains on Wednesday despite a neutral to slightly bearish USDA report. Open interest was down 2,948 contracts, suggesting some short covering. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was up 14 3/4 cents at $11.41. Soymeal futures were $1.30 to 3.50 higher on the day, with Soy Oil up 15 to 64 points. There were 26 deliveries against August soybeans overnight, with 2 for soy meal and 91 for bean oil. They expire on Friday.
Crop Production data from NASS this morning showed soybean yield for 2026 estimated at 52.7 bpa. Acreage was raised by 1.4 to 86.8 million acres on the planted side, with harvested acres tallied at 85.8 million acres. That took production to 4.519 bbu, which is 44 mbu larger compared to the WASDE projection from July. FSA data showed prevent plant acres at 525,377 acres for this spring.
Monthly WASDE data showed old crop ending stocks at 325 mbu, which was 5 mbu below last month on an increase to crush. Projected ending stocks for 2026/27 are seen at 320 mbu, up 10 mbu compared to the July number on the increased production. On the world side, ending stocks for 2026/27 were seen at 124.21 MMT, up just 0.04 MMT from the July total.
Old crop production in Brazil was up 0.5 MMT to 180.5 MMT per the Wednesday WASDE. CONAB trimmed the Brazilian production number by 0.11 MMT to 180.46 MMT. Argentina was cut by 0.5 MMT on Wednesday to 49.5 MMT.
USDA reported a private export sale of 224,000 MT of soybeans to China this morning for 2026/27 shipment. Weekly Export Sales data will be released on Thursday, with analysts looking for 2025/26 bean sales at net cancellations of 200,000 MT to sales of 300,000 MT in the week of August 6. New crop sales are seen between 1.5-1.9 MMT in that week. Soybean meal sales are seen at 100,000 to 400,000 MT for that week, with bean oil bookings expected to total 1,000 to 10,000 MT.
Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin sold 461,000 MT of the 516,000 MT offered in their auction of imported beans overnight at $596.39/MT.
Aug 26 Soybeans closed at $11.64 3/4, up 17 1/4 cents, currently unch
Nearby Cash was $11.41 1/1, up 14 3/4 cents,
Sep 26 Soybeans closed at $11.65 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents, currently down 1 ¾ cents
Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.83 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents, currently down 2 ½ cents
New Crop Cash was $11.25 1/1, up 14 1/2 cents,
.png?w=600)
