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Russian forces have advanced in eastern Ukraine and look to be readying for an “upcoming battle” for a key city in the area, the loss of which could open up the wider Donetsk region, analysts have reported.
While the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region through August successfully captured a chunk of mainland Russia, Kyiv’s forces are now battling hard against advancing troops in the Donetsk region hundreds of miles to the south.
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It had been hoped that the Kursk incursion would draw away Russian forces in Donetsk and slow the advance but it appears that this has not happened.
Coupled with morale issues, belated troop rotations and apparent ammunition shortages, Ukrainian forces have had to fight hard to prevent any significant advance in the area.
On Tuesday, Russian security council chief and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu alleged that Moscow’s forces had seized a significant sliver of territory in the region.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) later claimed that Russian forces had taken control of four villages in the region towards the key city of Pokrovsk.
While the claims are likely exaggerated - or at the least premature - they nonetheless highlight the volatile situation in the area.
Open source data and battlefield reports indicate that Russian forces in the wider Donbas region, including Donetsk and neighbouring Luhansk, advanced in August at their fastest rate in about two years.
The Ukrainian general staff, meanwhile, wrote on Tuesday that Russia “continues to try to break through the defence” in multiple directions towards and around Pokrovsk.
Below, The Independent takes a look at the latest developments on the frontline.
The fight for Pokrovsk
The frontline in Ukraine is around 740 miles long but the “hottest” fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, according to the Ukrainian military, particularly towards the city of Pokrovsk.
It is a linchpin of Ukrainian defence in the region and, sitting on two strategic supply roads to the rest of Donetsk, is vital to the defence of the area.
The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian security think tank, suggested the “upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy’s offensive operations” in 2024.
The Russians appear to be pushing around the Pokrovsk area, as well as in the Toretsk direction immediately north and the Kurakhove district to the south, along multiple points.
Ukraine’s general staff said there were five attacks in the Toretsk direction, mainly focused around the area of Niu-York, a city contested by both forces.
Around 20 miles to the south, they reported that they had repelled 11 Russian attacks of 14 directed towards Pokrovsk. Around 20 miles further south, towards Kurakhove, they reported another 14 Russian attacks. They added that the Kurakhove and the Pokrovsk attacks were the “hottest” on the frontline.
CDS suggested that Russian forces will now look to surround the city of Selydove and use that as a stepping stone to attack Pokrovsk.
