Russia’s ‘permanent test’ is pushing Europe to the brink of war – here’s what Moscow actually wants

Russian army special forces inspect vehicles at a checkpoint in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, in February 2024. Sergey Nikonov/Shutterstock

The scenes have become grimly familiar: Russian tanks rolling into Georgia in 2008, the seizure of Crimea in 2014, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russian military jets violating European airspace, and now mysterious drone sightings closing airports across Europe.

While these may seem like disconnected events, in reality they are but chapters in a singular, focused and evolving strategy. Russia’s aim is to wield military power when necessary, engage in “grey-zone” war tactics when possible, and exert political pressure everywhere. Moscow has been doing all this for decades, with one objective in mind: to redraw Europe’s security map without triggering direct war with Nato.