The massive success of wide receivers Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle in recent rookie seasons has led to high stakes fantasy players fighting to build their rosters with first-year wideouts.
Paying attention to the average draft position (ADP) of players in high stakes fantasy leagues is arguably the most beneficial projection to monitor. The opinions of the most successful season-long players, who are laying thousands on the line in entry fees, often set the bar for player values.
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On average, seven members of the 2022 rookie wide receiver class are currently being drafted among the first 119 picks in high stakes drafts.
When should you be ready to pull the trigger in your own league?
Let’s dive in and find out.
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Drake London, Falcons
WR No. 36; ADP 61
The Falcons, who are tied with the Texans for the lowest season win total (4.5 wins) projection at SI Sportsbook, will likely be trailing in many games this season. As fantasy managers are keenly aware, garbage time in the second half of NFL games is often “fantasy gold.”
Atlanta will be without star wideout Calvin Ridley for the entire season due to suspension, which leaves a significant amount of targets available in the Falcons passing game. In 2021, Drake London led USC with 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and 7 touchdowns in just eight games. However, despite seeing his season cut short due to a broken ankle, London was the first wide receiver drafted with the eighth overall pick.
Despite a less than favorable QB option in Marcus Mariota, the lack of elite options at wide receiver could translate into London dominating the Atlanta target share along with tight end Kyle Pitts. Throughout the summer, 6’4” target has held steady with a fifth-round draft demand despite suffering a knee injury in the preseason. Early indications are London will be in the lineup in Week 1 against the Saints.
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Chris Olave, Saints
WR No. 43 ; ADP 72
High stakes fantasy managers are intrigued by the potential of the Saints offense thanks to the return of undefined coupled with the arrival of Jarvis Landry in free agency and Chris Olave via the draft.
Coming off the board no later than the middle of the seventh round, high stakes managers are typically targeting Olave in the first half of Round 6. However, following the increasing likelihood that top pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara will not face a suspension for off-the-field conduct this season, Olave could struggle to deliver production worthy of his current ADP.
Skyy Moore, Chiefs
WR No. 44; ADP 78
Following the trade of Tyreek Hill to Miami, the Chiefs immediately became in need of talent at the wideout position. Skyy Moore ranked among the top wideouts in the country in his junior campaign at Western Michigan with 95 receptions, 1,292 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The presence of fellow wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as well as tight end Travis Kelce could make consistent weekly production for Moore a difficult endeavor. However, despite only projecting as the fourth option in the passing pecking order, high stakes managers have not let Moore slip out of the seventh round. In fact, most draft boards reflect a strong sixth-round draft ADP.
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Treylon Burks, Titans
WR No. 46; ADP 83
The Titans shocked the world when they shipped star wideout A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on the opening night of the NFL draft. Tennessee targeted former Arkansas standout Treylon Burks as the player to lead the receiving corps in 2022. Burks thrived against elite SEC competition in his junior year leading the Razorbacks with 66 receptions for 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns.
The big (6' 2") target joins a roster that added former Rams wide receiver Robert Woods as well as fifth-round draft choice Kyle Phillips. Burks is a player who has witnessed significant volatility coming off the board as high as the fourth round to as low as the back end of round nine. Word has spread that Burks has struggled in training camp, leading to losing reps to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Buyer beware.
Garrett Wilson, Jets
WR No. 51; ADP 100
The Jets drafted former Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson with the 10th overall selection. Wilson, who earned second-team All-Big Ten honors after catching 70 passes for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns, will be thrust into a major role in his first season in New York.
Wilson joins a Jets roster that consists of emerging wideout Elijah Moore as well as veterans Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios. Following the injury to Zach Wilson, the Jets rookie wide receiver has seen his ADP fall one full round to the first half of Round 8.
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Romeo Doubs, Packers
WR No. 55; ADP 113
The Packers trade of Davante Adams to Las Vegas vacated 169 targets. Green Bay drafted Romeo Doubs in the fourth round of the draft, two rounds after tabbing Christian Watkins at the top of the second round.
However, high stakes players are convinced that Doubs, who posted 2,111 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Nevada, is the wide receiver not named Allen Lazard to have from the Packers roster. Over the last week, Doubs has leaped into the ninth round -- four full rounds ahead of Watson -- who is now listed with a 12th-round ADP.
George Pickens, Steelers
WR No. 60; ADP 119
After a strong preseason, George Pickens has rocketed up draft boards as fantasy managers are intrigued by his untapped potential. Due to issues with COVID-19 and and an ACL injury, Pickens had limited production over his final two seasons at Georgia and subsequently fell to the Steelers in the second round of the draft.
Pickens, who earlier found a Round 15 ADP, has moved up nearly six full rounds, now coming off the board prior to the close of Round 9. Despite the presence of Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, high stakes owners believe in the Pittsburgh rookie wideout who has flashed in the preseason. Claypool’s shoulder injury has afforded Pickens the chance to run with the starting unit and he has made the most of the opportunity.
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
