Prediction markets, which allow users to bet in real time on everything from elections to the Super Bowl, are suddenly big business and growing fast. Robinhood underscored that during the company’s Q3 earnings announcement on Wednesday afternoon, stating that prediction markets have grown to $100 million in annualized revenue, and that revenue in October from the category eclipsed that of the entire previous quarter.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev spoke about prediction markets numerous times during a live earnings event in San Francisco, where he took questions from investors, analysts, and reporters. But even as Tenev portrayed prediction markets as an important new pillar of growth, he made clear Robinhood is unlikely to build one of its own.
Currently, the company relies primarily on a partnership with Kalshi to provide the exchange underlying most of Robinhood’s prediction market offerings. The startup, along with rival Polymarket, exploded in popularity in 2024 during the U.S. presidential election campaign, thanks in part to a court ruling that overturned a longtime regulatory position that most prediction markets were illegal. While Kalshi and Polymarket remain the dominant players, other challengers are emerging.
