The Republican National Committee (RNC) has sued Michigan’s secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, in federal court, using a flawed analysis of population data to argue that the state’s voter rolls are bloated and inaccurate.
The filing claims that in 76 of the state’s 83 counties, registered voters exceeded the number of citizens eligible to vote there or have “rates of active voter registration” that are “suspiciously high”. The claim closely matches a similar one that has been circulating since Donald Trump lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden – that a high level of voter registration is a smoking gun for fraud.
It’s not that straightforward.
Federal law, which requires that states regularly conduct voter list maintenance, also requires states to wait multiple election cycles before removing inactive voters from the rolls. The safeguard – to prevent people from being disenfranchised for not voting – means that voter rolls necessarily contain some amount of outdated voter registration information.
The suit claims that there are many counties in Michigan where the number of registered voters is suspiciously high, and in some cases greater than the eligible voting age population. That claim is based on a comparison of 2022 population data from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and “the most up to date count of registered active voters available from the Michigan Bureau of Elections”.
The suit does not say the date from which it is measuring voter registration, but the bureau appears to update voter registration statistics daily.
Experts have long warned the methodology the RNC relies on in the suit paints a misleading picture of the voter rolls. Comparing more recent voter registration information to outdated ACS population numbers can give an exaggerated impression of voter roll bloat.
“They use an inflated voter registration number and a deflated voter-eligible population number, leading to a misleading result,” a federal judge wrote in 2018, ruling against challengers in a similar lawsuit. “By relying upon an inaccurate registration rate as a basis to suggest a lack of list maintenance, the entire premise of this opinion is flawed from the start.”
Moreover, the ACS seeks to capture general population numbers, but someone, like a college student or a person in the military, can be registered to vote in a place where they are not living.
“Registration is about domicile, Census estimates of [citizen voting age population] CVAP are about where you lay your head. You can still be legally registered in a jurisdiction even if you’re not physically present there,” Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola law school in Los Angeles, wrote in a 2020 blogpost.
“Any jurisdiction that sends a lot of people to the military, but doesn’t have a base, may well have more lawfully registered people than Census CVAP estimates show.”
The Wednesday filing comes just days after a Michigan judge dismissed a case brought by the rightwing Public Interest Legal Foundation (Pilf), which claimed Benson’s office had failed to properly remove deceased voters from the rolls. In fact, the judge found, Michigan is “consistently among the most active states in the United States in cancelling the registrations of deceased individuals” and “deceased voters are removed from Michigan’s voter rolls on a regular and ongoing basis”.
It also comes in the immediate wake of Trump’s overhaul of the RNC, which saw scores of administrative staff and the committee’s top leadership replaced with Trump loyalists. Among the new hires are a team of lawyers RNC leadership say will focus on elections litigation – including Christina Bobb, an attorney who played a key role in promoting Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.
Since 2020, rightwing groups have consistently thrown into question the validity of voter rolls, especially in swing states. One of the most popular methods that states use to clean their voter rolls, the Electronic Registration Information Center (Eric), has become the focal point of rightwing conspiracy theories relating to elections administration – prompting nine states to leave the program.
Conservative groups have increasingly targeted voter rolls, including in Michigan, where the state is working to reinstate hundreds of voters whose registrations were challenged by rightwing activists and subsequently removed from the rolls by local clerks. This campaign has been promoted by top Trump allies and embraced by grassroots groups and individuals who believe Trump’s false claims of widespread voter fraud.
Benson has denounced the RNC lawsuit.
“Let’s call this what it is: a PR campaign masquerading as a meritless lawsuit filled with baseless accusations that seek to diminish people’s faith in the security of our elections,” Benson wrote in a statement.
“Shame on anyone who abuses the legal process to sow seeds of doubt in our democracy.”
