Thank you so much for all of your brilliant questions, I’ve really enjoyed answering them, and some of them have given me plenty to mull over in the final hours of the campaign!
My colleague Josh Halliday and I will be at the count tomorrow night, so please do follow our coverage for the latest updates from Makerfield.
I hope that at least some of my predictions will prove to be correct! We should find out in the early hours hours of Friday morning...
Where is the Restore candidate?
FiniteMonkey asks: I have a question - is there any evidence that the Restore candidate actually exists?
Hannah: I haven’t personally met her! But then I haven’t been given any time with Andy Burnham during the campaign either, and I have met him many times before, so I know he definitely does exist.
I have noted that there appear to have been fewer public-facing events during this campaign, for example hustings. We’ve also seen less from the party leaders; it stands to reason that Keir Starmer would remain absent, and I sure Burnham would probably prefer it that way, but we’ve also seen a lot less of Nigel Farage during this campaign than we did in Gorton and Denton.
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When do we get the results?
irreverentnurse asks: When do we get the results?
Hannah: We’re expecting a result around 4am - 5am, but we may have an indication earlier than that. With Gorton and Denton it was clear that the Greens had won a good couple of hours before the declaration.
How much say does the Labour membership have in choosing the leader?
ADH1969 asks: How much does the Labour party membership have over who is elected leader of the party? In other words how is the voting split: what percentage is it MPs, unions and ordinary members?
Hannah: While there used to be voting blocks in Labour leadership elections, the voting system changed in 2015, and is now one-member-one-vote. This includes MPs, who only have one vote, so can be largely outweighed by the membership. Both Labour party members and members of affiliated unions are able to vote in the election, but need to opt in first – and each person can only vote once, even if they are a Labour member and also a trade union member. However, MPs do still have a significant role to play, as candidates need the support of 20% of MPs to launch a leadership challenge. (Or if a leader resigns they need the support of 20% of MPs, plus 5% of constituency parties, or 5% of affiliates, such as trade unions. This was increased from 10% of MPs in 2021, when the option to vote as a registered supporter was also scrapped.)
How close is it really?
IscoBusquet asks: Q 1: Are Reform campaigning on local issues at all in Makerfield?
Q 2: Is it really as close as it looks? In previous byelections since 2024 tactical voting was seemingly completely underestimated by polling, especially Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton.
Hannah: 1. I have definitely noticed Reform shift to more local issues throughout the campaign. The illegal waste dump is a big issue in Makerfield, as are neglected high streets, and towards the end of the campaign, we’ve heard a lot from Reform about issues like fly-tipping, illegal waste dumping, and holding businesses like takeaways accountable for litter.
2. Election experts I’ve spoken to have said that Labour should win it, and the mood in the Labour camp in these last few days has definitely seemed optimistic, while the Reform side from what I’m hearing is more downbeat. However, nobody I’ve spoken to is anticipating an easy win, and it may be very close.
I actually think we didn’t see much tactical voting in Gorton and Denton – I live there and from speaking to people locally, I don’t think either Labour or the Greens had successfully convinced people on any large scale that they were the tactical vote to beat Reform. I think the Greens won here simply because they were more popular. However, you’re absolutely right that it was a factor in Caerphilly.
I think we’re definitely seeing evidence in Makerfield of Green and Lib Dem voters lending their voters to Burnham, so I think it will play a big role in this election too. (And what the evidence suggests is that Restore voters are not as likely to do the same for Reform, which will also help Labour.) I think those tactical voters have already been factored into a lot of the Makerfield predictions though, which suggest that Burnham will win, but with Reform not too far behind.
Will turn out size affect the outcome?
RichienotsoRich asks: What is your prediction in terms of turn out and what difference could large versus median vs small make to the outcome?
Hannah: I don’t like making myself a hostage to fortune by predicting anything, but I think that turnout will be relatively high. Turnouts are often lower in byelections than general elections. Burnham ally Lucy Powell was elected in Manchester Central in 2012 on a turnout of just 18% – the lowest since World War Two.
In the Gorton and Denton byelection the turnout was I think 47-48%, which was roughly the same as at the general election. In Makerfield in 2024 turnout was a bit higher at 52.5%, and I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout was similar tomorrow – maybe even higher, as this byelection has been so high profile.
If I had to say, I’d suggest a higher turnout will benefit Burnham as I spoke to quite a few people who had said they hadn’t voted last time, but would be voting for him on Thursday.
Should Burham wait to make his leadership move?
Alexis2782 asks: Would it be a better tactic for Burnham to wait until the Mayoral Election to launch a leadership bid?
Would it damage Burnham’s leadership chances if he was in the middle of a leadership campaign with Reform winning his old job?
Whereas waiting would mean any loss to Reform would only have Starmer’s fingerprints all over it.
Hannah: That’s a really interesting question, and you make some very good points. It is quite difficult to answer what his intentions may be because Team Burnham remain incredibly tight-lipped about their plans post-Thursday. It has been suggested that he may until Labour Party conference time, in the Autumn.
I can totally see the wisdom in it for him to wait a few weeks or months, and also logistically, he would be expected to be present during the mayoral campaign, and so it would be difficult for him to fight both at the same time.
However, as Wes Streeting has talked about launching a leadership bid as early as next week, the decision may be taken out of his hands…
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What would a Burnham win in Makerfield mean for Manchester?
ndl4321 asks: If Andy Burnham wins and becomes an MP how quickly does an election have to be held for the new Mayor of Greater Manchester?
Following on from that, what is the likelihood that Labour might not win that election?
Hannah: We’re expecting it to happen pretty quickly, and there has already been a date floated, which off the top of my head I think was 30 July 30. So we’re pretty much planning to go straight from one byelection into the next if Burnham wins tomorrow. If a mayor has policing powers (as opposed to mayors with separate police and crime commissioners), they are not allowed to also be an MP, so Burnham would have to resign pretty much straight away, triggering the byelection.
British politics is so unpredictable at the minute that I would never dare to even try to predict an election result! However, I think the accepted wisdom is that Reform would be Labour’s biggest challenger. Reform are likely to do well in a lot of the outer boroughs like Tameside, Rochdale, and Wigan. However, my understanding is that Manchester city council has the biggest electorate by quite some way, and while there are parts of the borough that vote Reform, there are more progressive voters here.
Labour has reintroduced the supplementary vote system for mayor elections, which was scrapped by the Tories, so that will give Burnham an advantage. If no one candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, second preference votes will then be counted. I would expect that the Greens in particular would do well in a mayoral election, particularly in south Manchester, but I’d imagine a lot of Green voters may be willing to second preference Labour to stop Reform.
I think Labour will need to choose their candidate carefully, as personality politics is so important these days. I know that the party is already war-gaming and taking the threat from Reform seriously. It will be an interesting contest…
Out for the Count
IscoBusquet asks: Has anyone asked Count Binface his opinion?
Hannah: I must admit that in this election, I have not. (Although I have interviewed him previously when he stood against Rishi Sunak in Richmond at the last general election). I must try harder next time!
Is Burnham soft left and what does that mean in 2026?
MistakeNot asks: I’ve heard it described that Burham represents the soft left of the Labour Party, what does that mean these days?
Hannah: The soft left has always been harder to define in Labour politics, and rather than referring to a specific faction, it can really mean anyone who is neither hard left (who were formerly known as Corbynites), or the more right-leaning “Blairite” or “New Labour” wing of the party. Obviously these terms are linked to previous leaders and are now quite outdated, but broadly we could say “democratic socialists” for the hard left and “social democrats” for the Labour right. The “soft left” tends to be used for anyone and everyone in the middle.
The situation is perhaps complicated by the fact that Keir Starmer was previously seen as soft left, but his policies in government have often been more right-leaning, for example on immigration, and cracking down on protest, which I think makes it even more hard to define these days.
However, with Burnham it is perhaps a little easier. He has been an advocate for electoral reform, which is an idea that has been historically popular with the soft left, and soft left ideas like bringing transport under public control are also aligned with Burnham – one of, or perhaps even his most – popular policies as Manchester mayor has been to set up the Bee Network, bringing public transport under central control and bringing down fares.
Burnham’s “Manchesterism” brand of politics is perhaps a really good example of “soft left” politics – devolving power away from Westminster. public ownership of essential services, and capping the price of basic necessities to deal with the cost of living; but also being friendly to business. All of this probably sits somewhere between free-market New Labour, and more radical Corbynism.
Could shy Reform voters skew the polls?
PHHemel asks: Should we worry that ‘shy Reformers’ may skew poll results? In some previous elections the ‘shy Tory’ effect meant that the Tory vote was higher than expected.
Hannah: Polling is by no means an exact science, and pollsters have got it wrong many times. It is of course a possibility, but I have seen Reform voters are generally quite happy to nail their colours to the mast, talk to me about why they’re voting Reform etc., and they’re probably even more happy to share their views with a pollster than with a journalist. So I wouldn’t necessarily be expecting it in significant numbers – but I could be wrong!
Why have the left lost the disadvanted?
StanEthel asks: There is a correlation between left behind, disadvantaged voters and support for Reform and Restore. These people’s lives will be worse under a rightwing regime
Why have the left lost these people?
Hannah: I think it is a mix of factors; part of it was complacency, as we saw in Scotland, where Labour lost to the SNP, and the North East, where they lost to the Tories in 2019. Makerfield is also a former mining community, so has something in common with those North East seats. I really don’t think there’s any such thing as a safe seat anymore, for any party, but I think Labour perhaps took those votes for granted for too long. Also, I have heard a lot (not just in this constituency, but others with similar demographics) “well we’ve always had a Labour MP and nothing has got any better” – so even if Labour aren’t in government, people place a lot of stores in who they have actually personally voted for.
However, I also think it is a lot to do with the fact that people’s lives have got worse; it is harder to see a GP, bills have gone up, social housing waiting lists have got longer. Parties like Reform and Restore have done a good job of pinning the blame for that on other people, (often immigrants), and I think people who are struggling to pay the bills and have seen their area decline may be looking for someone to blame for that.
I think if the left want to win back those voters they need to convince them that voting for a progressive party will make their lives better. We have seen Labour pass some important legislation that may work towards this; eg. on workers rights, and renters rights, but I think while so many people are struggling with the cost of living, and see public services as lacking, that message hasn’t really filtered through yet.
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Is there a controversy over some Jimmy Savile posters?
IscoBusquet asks: Has there been much controversy locally over councillors being photographed next to a poster saying “I would Rather vote for Jimmy Savile than Labour”?
Hannah: I have seen some controversy over it locally, it is in very poor taste and I think a lot of people are quite outraged by it – but that outrage seems to be mostly coming from people who are opposed to Reform anyway. I don’t know whether it will cost them any votes.
I believe the councillor who posted it has faced some backlash, and may have removed her social media profiles.
Perhaps a sign of the age we are living in with so many AI-generated images floating around, I’ve seen a lot of people asking “Is this real?” I believe some Reform politicians had said it was a fake, but later retracted that.
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Over for Burnham or over for Starmer?
VirgilHilts asks: If Reform win is it over for Andy Burnham? And if Labour win is it over for Sir Keir Starmer?
Hannah: If Andy Burnham doesn’t win tomorrow night, I think there will be a lot of soul searching for Labour, because effectively it will mean that no Labour politician is able to beat Reform in areas where Reform are strong. The Reform candidate was not particularly strong, and there were plenty of negative stories about his online posts in particular, so with a fairly weak Reform candidate, and a very popular Labour candidate, if Reform still win, that will surely be crisis point for Labour.
Wes Streeting is already talking about launching a leadership challenge as early as next week, and I think a Reform win would give him the confidence to do that, and also other MPs the incentive to support him, so I think Keir Starmer would be in serious trouble if Burnham loses.
As for Andy Burnham, that one is a bit harder to foresee. I’d imagine he’d slot back into being Manchester mayor, at least for now, but what his next move would be, and whether he’d try again for a (safer) parliamentary seat, or whether he’d choose to step away from politics altogether, I just don’t know.
Would a Burnham loss affect his popularity in Manchester?
Veltatecla asks: If Burnham loses tomorrow and continues as Manchester’s Mayor will the loss, and the standing in Makerfield, affect his popularity in Manchester?
Hannah: My instinct is no. I think people who live here and like Burnham will be more inclined to blame Nigel Farage or Keir Starmer if Burnham loses, rather than Burnham himself. There is some recently polling out that shops his popularity ratings have dropped nationally since May (I think by about 6 or 7%), but he’s still the most popular Labour politician pollsters asked people about, and in Manchester it still feels like he’s very popular, and people still approve of his record as mayor.
However, I think what might be more difficult for him is if he loses, carries on as mayor for a bit, and then wants to stand in another parliamentary byelection. I have no idea whether or not he would want to do that, but if he did, I wonder whether people would perhaps then lose patience, and question his commitment to the role of mayor…
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Should I volunteer for Labour?
ruthj70 asks: Should I go and volunteer to support Labour tomorrow, or have people in Makerfield had enough of people knocking on their doors?
Hannah: I think that question is probably best answered by the Labour Party, but I’d imagine they wouldn’t say no! People may generally be a bit fed up with people knocking on their doors – but I think they probably expect it will happen on polling day.
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Burnham's policies for Makerfield?
SavoryCharacter asks: What are Burnham’s actual policies?
Hannah: The ticket he is standing on is mostly based around local policies. He has pledged: to build new flooding infrastructure, build a new link road, and to clear that toxic waste dump in Bickershaw that I wrote about last weekend. He’s also promised a new health centre, pharmacy and GP surgery in various parts of the constituency, and to save a local library. Burnham has also said he’ll fight a controversial housing development that some people locally are opposing, due to a potential loss of green belt countryside and destruction of ancient trees.
The main local issues I’ve found in the constituency are environmental ones such as flooding, transport issues, and public services, as well as a general sense that the area has been neglected and the high streets have become run down. Burnham’s ticket seems to be broadly designed to appeal to these local concerns.
Split between Reform and Restore?
Batters56 asks: What will the split be between Reform and Restore voters? Do you think the combined Restore and Reform vote will be bigger than the Andy Burnham vote?
Hannah: In the last few weeks of the campaign we’ve seen Restore polling somewhere around 5-7%. We’ve also seen evidence that so far Restore voters seem quite reluctant to lend their voters to Reform, so it could well be that the Restore vote will benefit Andy Burnham, as so far it has been roughly equivalent to his poll lead over Reform. I think pollsters are keen to see whether that vote continues to hold up, or whether Restore voters might be inclined to crumble and switch to Reform at the last minute.
Polling experts have said to me that it may be the case that Restore voters also may not want to switch to Reform (some see Farage and his party of Conservative defectors as part of the political establishment), so they may have chosen to stay at home instead if Restore were not fielding a candidate. Restore didn’t stand here in July 2024 or at the local elections in May, or during the recent Gorton and Denton by-election (when the party to the right of Reform, Advance UK only picked up 154 votes in total), so I think we’ll all be watching quite keenly to see what happens to those votes on the night.
Would Reform beat anyone other than Burnham?
gavernism asks: I have one simple albeit obvious question and one curiosity question. If Andy Burnham wasn’t standing do you think Reform would have won this seat?
Is Makersfield the same area as Orwell’s famous Wigan Pier? If so, do you think there is something about that area that seems to make it historic every so often?
Hannah: It is very easy to answer hypothetical questions with confidence, but I’m going to do it anyway: yes, I think with almost any other Labour candidate Reform would have won this election fairly comfortably. What I’ve found in the constituency is that people who lean both left and right and wouldn’t normally vote Labour have been willing to back Burnham, either because they think he’s done a good job as mayor, or because they want him to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership – or both. I can’t think of any other potential Labour candidate who would have been able to pick up votes on the left and the right in the same way.
It is in the same area, yes [though just outside the constituency]! And the area was also made famous by the Wigan Casino, the home of Northern Soul in the 1970s. (And Wigan also claims to be the pie capital of the world!) So you’re right that the area does have a lot of history. Your suggestion is a really nice thought, and something I hadn’t previously considered, but I do wonder if there are lots of towns where byelections have been held that can also claim similar – but different – interesting histories?
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Will women vote for Kenyon?
EGriff asks: Are the social media comments of the Reform candidate having an effect on womens’ voting intentions?
Hannah: I went to Makerfield when these stories first started coming out to ask specifically this question. However, what I found that people – both men and women – who were backing Reform said they weren’t bothered about the posts; some pointed to the fact that they were quite historic, or said they liked him regardless.
There was certainly a lot of outrage over the posts, but this mostly seemed to be coming from people who were not planning to vote Reform anyway.
Who is spending the most and what influence does money have?
salamandertome asks: Is it obvious on the ground which parties are spending the most in the run up to the election? Is the influence of this on the electorate clear?
Hannah: I haven’t actually seen any big, flashy, expensive-looking spending outside of an ordinary byelection campaign. Reform seem to have far more advertising boards, and bigger ones, but Andy Burnham had some quite pricey-looking record-shaped leaflets. Residents have told me about being bombarded with literature, but I don’t think any more so than we saw in Gorton and Denton, (which was perhaps even worse as Labour, the Greens and Reform all fought that very hard, and here there are only two main parties in contention.)
I have seen evidence of strong ground campaigns from Labour and Reform, and also to a lesser – but still significant – presence from Restore. I think what may have an influence on the electorate, and which is perhaps harder to measure or control is online messaging. I reported yesterday that research from the Social Market Foundation found the share of local Facebook posts classified as misinformation had increased fourfold during the campaign, with a lot of it driven by what appeared to be fake accounts and fake news organisations, and use of AI-generated images.
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Will the football affect the vote?
unhelpfullyangry asks: Do you think the England result tonight could affect the way some people vote tomorrow?
Hannah: I think most, if not all, candidates will be trying to convince the electorate that they are the biggest England fan, and we should expect to see lots of pictures on social media of them all watching the match tonight! So probably not…
Are Restore focusing on local issues rather than immigration?
id1983 asks: I understand the Restore campaigning in the area was notably absent on far right issues and focused mainly on local politically aligned issues. So much so that a relative who lives there (who voted Green in the last election) is voting for the Restore candidate. What are your thoughts on this?
Hannah: I have actually heard the opposite; from what I’ve heard of the Restore campaign, it seems to focus very heavily on things like “mass immigration” and “deportations”, and things like cutting foreign aid. Immigration is an issue that has been raised consistently every time I’ve been to Makerfield, and Restore do look to be attempting to capitalise on that; immigration has been the main issue that people have cited when they’ve told me why they’re voting Restore, as well as losing trust in Reform, who for some now form part of the “establishment”. Voters who had been affected by local issues, such as flooding in Abram and the waste dump in Bickershaw said they did not feel that they had heard much from Restore about local issues, or that the party did not care about Green issues.
However, I do note some of the campaign material, particularly branded with the candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, has focused on things like reviving local high streets, and keeping women and girls safe locally; it could be this that your relative is referring to. I do note that Restore is running a decently staffed campaign, with lots of volunteers, and so I don’t doubt your relative’s experience. It could be that the campaigner or campaigners they have spoken to during the campaign have perhaps focused more on these local issues and have managed to talk about them successfully.
Could Burnham win the seat on Thursday and lose it again at the next election?
Salvation20 asks: How real is the risk that even if Andy Burnham wins this byelection, that at the next election he could lose his seat? The constituency isn’t a traditional safe seat and the voters who are willing to lend him their support to stop Reform may be less generous next time.
Hannah: I was actually speaking to polling experts this week for a piece about tactical voting, and they raised this very possibility. You’re right in that while the constituency was once a very safe Labour seat, it definitely isn’t any more, and we’re expecting the final result tomorrow may be quite tight.
I think the answer to this question depends a lot on what happens next for Andy Burnham – if he is successful in his leadership challenge, and becomes prime minister, we normally see a bit of a poll boost on election day for PMs (perhaps because voters like being represented by the PM?)
What I have heard consistently from voters here who don’t usually vote Labour (on the left and right) is they are voting for Burnham because they either like his record as mayor, or because they want him to challenge Keir Starmer (or potentially both of these things). If any leadership challenge is unsuccessful and he remains on the backbenches, I think he may struggle a bit more.
Burnham has also been successful as he has managed to set himself apart so successfully from the Labour government (even his election posters say “Vote Andy”, rather than “Vote Labour”) – if he’s in Westminster that may be more difficult for him to do.
It could be in a general election that Green and Lib Dem – and Reform – voters who were willing to back Burnham this time may revert to their preferred party at a general election, and he could be in trouble.
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Welcome to the Conversation
Ahead of tomorrow’s byelection in Makerfield, the Guardian’s North of England correspondent Hannah Al-Othman will be here to answer your questions about anything from tactical voting to the local issues that could end up having a national impact as Andy Burnham seeks a return to parliament before challenging for the Labour leadership. Hannah will be here from 1pm BST.
Sign up here to join the discussion and post your questions.
In the meantime, here’s some of our recent reporting on Burnham’s prospects and on what is happening inside the constituency ahead of the vote.
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