ANALYSIS — The House battleground continues to take shape two months before Election Day. While a handful of the top Senate races have been engaged for months with torrents of television ads, most House races are just now doing the same. And with the uncertainty at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, the down-ballot fight was in a holding pattern for much of the summer.
Until his departure from the race on July 21, President Joe Biden was headed for defeat by former President Donald Trump and threatened to torpedo Democratic chances of winning the House and holding the Senate. Now, with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, the party’s congressional candidates have a better, albeit still slim, chance of holding the Senate and are firmly in the fight for the House majority.
The path to a majority has been slightly easier for Republicans throughout the cycle. While Democrats have needed to win nine of the 10 races rated as Toss-ups by Inside Elections to get to 218 (as long as they win all of the races rated as Solid, Likely, Lean and Tilt Democratic), Republicans needed to win just two rated as Toss-up.
The silver lining for Democrats has been that Biden finished ahead of Trump in nine of the 10 Toss-ups in 2020 in an era with minimal ticket-splitting. But Biden was on track to finish behind Trump in the Toss-up districts, as well as many in the Tilt and Lean categories and probably some in Likely Democratic. That was a death sentence to Democrats’ chances in the House and fueled the pressure for Biden to drop out of the race.
Now, public and private polling shows Harris is matching or exceeding Biden’s 2020 performance, pulling close in the presidential race and improving Democrats’ chances of gaining the four seats they need.
The seven recent rating changes are split nearly evenly between the two parties.
Democrats’ chances improved in four races: California’s 45th (GOP Rep. Michelle Steel) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, Nebraska’s 2nd (GOP Rep. Don Bacon) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, Pennsylvania’s 17th (Democratic Rep. Chris Deluzio) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic and Washington’s 8th (Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic.
Republicans’ chances improved in three races: Michigan’s 8th (Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee’s open seat) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up, New York’s 17th (GOP Rep. Mike Lawler) from Toss-up to Tilt Republican and Virginia’s 7th (Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s open seat) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.
The changes are a microcosm of the overall battle for the House. GOP incumbents such as Steel and Bacon are more vulnerable with Trump doing poorly in their districts, while Democrats are going to have a tough time defending open seats like the pair in Michigan and one in Virginia.
With the latest rating changes, the House battlefield comprises 82 districts (45 currently held by Democrats and 37 currently held by Republicans) and the path to 218 still looks easier for Republicans. They need to win just two of the dozen Toss-ups, while Democrats need to win 11 of 12. But that understates Democrats’ opportunity. If Harris continues to perform well at the top of the ticket, Democratic prospects will improve.
The next couple of weeks will bring more clarity to the fight for the House with a slew of private polling, as party strategists make critical campaign spending decisions, and some public polling. Inside Elections just released its third House battleground poll on Wednesday, in partnership with Noble Predictive Insights. The survey of Oregon’s 5th District follows polls in Michigan’s 7th and Ohio’s 9th districts.
Inside Elections’ House projection is still a range of a Democratic gain of five seats to a Republican gain of five seats, with control contained within. That means every seat will matter, and it could be weeks before we know which party controls the chamber because of multiple competitive races in California, New York and Pennsylvania, where it can take a while to count ballots.
Moved toward Democrats
- California’s 45th (Michelle Steel, R) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
- Pennsylvania’s 17th (Chris Deluzio, D) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Washington’s 8th (Kim Schrier, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
Moved toward Republicans
- Michigan’s 8th (Open; Dan Kildee, D) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up
- New York’s 17th (Mike Lawler, R) from Toss-up to Tilt Republican
- Virginia’s 7th (Open; Abigail Spanberger, D) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up
Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst with CQ Roll Call.
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