A week after an abortive uprising by a mercenary chief shook his authority, Vladimir Putin’s efforts to reassert his control are showing cracks.
Infighting spread within the security establishment as the Russian president moved on senior players thought to have supported the 24-hour mutiny by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. One top general was detained for questioning, according to people familiar with the moves.
Opponents of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from the security services stepped up internal calls for his removal, they said, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe events that aren’t public. Prigozhin had been publicly attacking Shoigu, a longtime ally of Putin’s, for months over the lack of success in the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin spent the week trying to reassure key constituencies, with televised public events involving military, business and other groups. While polls showed his public support remained strong, doubts about his control among the government and business elite spread, insiders said.
The continuing turmoil deepened questions about what Prigozhin’s dramatic march on Moscow a week ago would mean for Putin’s 17-month-old invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv renewed calls for more assistance for its military. There were growing signs that the US and some of its allies were reconsidering earlier caution on sending new kinds of weapons, despite fears about how the shaken Russian president might react.
“It’s clear that Putin comes out of this crisis weakened,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Thursday. “But a weaker Putin is a greater danger.”
While western officials agreed that Putin’s authority had been eroded by the events, some suggested his undermined position will make him less likely to escalate the war. Ukrainian allies were pushing for stronger assurances for the country’s possible membership in NATO at the alliance’s summit next month.
U.S. and European officials were watching closely for any indication the turmoil might affect Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal but said so far, there’s no sign of any increased risk. Many capitals have grown jaded to the Kremlin’s repeated threats to use the arms in the war against Ukraine, officials said.
In Russia, investigators questioned Sergei Surovikin, a prominent general who had run the war in Ukraine from October to January, over the events, according to a person familiar with the situation. Known as “General Armageddon” for his ruthless fighting in Syria, Surovikin isn’t in custody but his movements are restricted, the person said. He couldn’t be reached for comment. CNN reported Thursday, citing documents from the Dossier Center, which investigates the Russian leadership, that the general had a personal registration with the Wagner Group.
“A massive investigation has begun,” said Sergei Markov, a political analyst with close Kremlin ties. “All the generals and officers who were in contact with Prigozhin and Wagner will be questioned.”
Broader probes were also underway into close allies of Shoigu, the defense minister, according to a person familiar with the situation. There has been no public confirmation of that.
One insider described what he called a power vacuum in the wake of the uprising that has undermined Putin proteges like Shoigu.
But western-allied officials said they don’t expect an imminent shakeup that would threaten the positions of Shoigu and Russia’s military chief, General Valery Gerasimov. Known for his loyalty, Putin is especially reluctant to remove longtime supporters under pressure.
“The loss of face for all the players involved hasn’t been overcome,” said Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. “There is simply no understanding whether political and personnel changes will be made or not. About repressions among security forces, there is absolutely no clarity, but no one is in a hurry to refute them.”
The military was a key group Putin spotlighted with public ceremonies this week. He addressed 2,500 troops on the main square inside the Kremlin, holding a moment of silence for those killed by Wagner fighters on the march toward Moscow. Later he met with uniformed officers to thank them for their loyalty, but made no further mention of those who had died.
On a stop in Dagestan Wednesday, Putin waded into a crowd of adoring supporters, something he’s rarely done since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Putin struck a positive note at a business forum on Thursday. “There’s a feeling of confidence that no matter what difficulties arise, we will overcome them all calmly, rhythmically, and moving forward,” he said, after getting a standing ovation from the invited guests when he arrived on stage.
A new opinion poll showed support for the president has held steady despite the mutiny, while Prigozhin’s ratings plunged. At the same time, the survey showed a majority of Russians now support peace talks to end the war in Ukraine instead of continuing the military operation, suggesting public backing for the effort is flagging.
Among the elite, the abortive uprising by a longtime protege has fueled doubts about Putin’s control. But one person close to the Kremlin said that some of that damage may be recoverable, especially since he’s bound top government and business leaders to him with the international isolation wrought by his war. Many of them are subject to US and European sanctions.
