The trick in picking player props, aside from just recognizing trends, is being able to predict game script.
For instance, last week I picked Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards over because I thought Dallas would get up big on Houston and Elliott would get a ton of carries to milk the clock. I also picked Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards under for the same reason — KC wasn’t supposed to be in a shootout with Denver.
Unfortunately, both games ended up being close. So, Elliott fell eight yards short of the over. And Mahomes ended up nowhere near the under because he had to work his magic to make sure the Chiefs won.
Let’s hope for better luck this week.
Week 14: 3-3
2022 record: 35-42
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: Under 21.5 receiving yards (at Washington Commanders)
I won with this prop in Week 11 and I’m coming back to it against Washington after Barkley had just 18 yards when they matched up two weeks ago. He hasn’t eclipsed 20 receiving yards since the Giants were a 6-1 team in Week 7.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: Under 76.5 rushing yards (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
Picking unders on two of the league’s best running backs in the same week feels wrong, but Baltimore’s defense hasn’t allowed a team to rush for more than 90 yards since Week 7. Chubb has been held below this line in three of his last five games.
Chase Claypool, Chicago Bears: Under 34.5 receiving yards (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Claypool hasn’t had the impact in Chicago that some thought he would when the team made the move to acquire him. If he hit this over, it would be just his second time in six games with the Bears. That’s going to be tough to do against Philadelphia’s secondary.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: Under 271.5 passing yards (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
This pick is less about my expectation for another Minnesota letdown and more about how high this line is. The Colts haven’t allowed 270 passing yards all season, and I’m not expecting their offense to put much pressure on the Vikings to pass.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 33.5 receiving yards (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Sure, Everett has only eclipsed 33 yards once in his last four games. But he has 14 targets over his last two games, so Justin Herbert is absolutely looking his way. And because the Titans give up a ton of yardage to tight ends, this might just be the game he finally gets there.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 256.5 passing yards (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
Trevor Lawrence has been on a bit of a tear lately, but he hasn’t exactly done it against defenses you would call good. And even then, this line hasn’t been a given. He’ll have an even harder time against Dallas.
