Torygeddon is coming, if the opinion polls are to be believed. Two last week added to the pile of surveys suggesting that a general election held now would see cabinet ministers toppling like Portillos. Those at risk, according to YouGov and Survation, include Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, perhaps best known for holding a sword during the coronation and apparently (although friends deny it) manoeuvring for the leadership of a post-Rishi Sunak Conservative party.
But on Friday afternoon in her Portsmouth North constituency, it was easy to find solidly Conservative voters, and there was little enthusiasm for Labour.
On Cosham high street, Barry Spencer, 82, a retired petty officer seaman, mentioned the pensions triple lock. “I’ve been a blue all my life. She’s been a good MP for us,” he said. His main concern was younger people – “waverers in their 30s and 40s and 50s” – who don’t share his low opinion of Labour. “So the Conservatives have a big problem on their hands.”
Lucy Fuller was out walking with her two-week-old twins. Is she a Penny fan? “Very much so. I like a lot of her values.” Mordaunt’s Royal Navy reservist past appeals. “I am ex-forces – I feel she has been a strong voice in support of the armed forces.”
Cosham is on the northern edge of Portsmouth North, which is divided by the M27. It is an important electoral battleground, where Labour needs to make inroads to win. The down-at-heel high street is pointed out by several people, including Nick Doyle, a Labour man out walking his dog. His biggest concern was the cost of living crisis. “The high street is the most visual effect of that. That and food banks. And people just can’t afford to shop.”
It’s not hugely encouraging news for Amanda Martin, Labour’s candidate here. “It’s just polls, isn’t it?” she said. “My worry is that people will see the polls and think it’s not worth voting. Actually, it’s a mammoth task. [Penny] has been an MP for 14 years. It’s a huge majority.” Mordaunt beat Martin in 2019 by 15,780 votes and with a 61.6% share.
The national polling is eye-catching and more scientific than a pavement vox pop. YouGov’s MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) poll of 18,700 people suggested that Labour would get 36% of votes, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on 31%, with the Lib Dems – who control Portsmouth city council – on 11% and Reform UK on 16%.
Reform is perhaps Mordaunt’s biggest problem. The party’s predecessor, Ukip, performed strongly in Portsmouth, and some of those who ran for Ukip won council seats for Portsmouth Independents Party (PIP).
In Paulsgrove, west of Cosham, several people mentioned PIP councillor George Madgwick. “I’d have been Labour but I don’t have a lot of faith in Starmer,” said bus driver Chris Vallely. “In the locals, I’ll be voting independent.” The cost of living is the biggest issue. “Everything is going up – council tax is going up, gas and electricity is going up and up, but they are getting record profits, and the profits are going overseas,” Vallely added.
Courtney Jones, out with her young daughter, also mentioned Madgwick – “potholes are a massive issue here and he’s done a lot” – but hadn’t decided how to vote in the general election: “Never Tories.”
Demographic changes, particularly the expansion of Portsmouth University, have helped Labour in Portsmouth South, which has been held by Stephen Morgan, the shadow transport minister, since 2017. Less has changed in the north, although Queen Alexandra hospital, rebuilt in 2009, dominates the landscape. The main issues on the doorstep, most parties agreed, were the cost of living, dental care and GPs. The Liz Truss premiership, immigration, Gaza and Brexit also featured.
The size of Mordaunt’s majority means Portsmouth North is 213th on Labour’s list of target seats, so Martin is unlikely to get a lot of attention. But Morgan is a useful ally. He believes the Conservatives have not been spending as much in Portsmouth North as in places such as Milton Keynes.
The Lib Dems are concentrating their efforts on Winchester and Chichester, where they have a chance of unseating Gillian Keegan, he said, so are unlikely to mount much of a challenge here.
Darren Sanders, a Lib Dem councillor for Baffins ward, part of Portsmouth North, believes Labour could take the seat if they tried. “The outcome has huge consequences for British politics,” he said. “Penny is a realistic candidate for Tory leader. If she loses, they’re left with Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman, the culture warriors. On the doorstep, there is no love for the Tories but no enthusiasm for Starmer’s Labour.”
A spokesman for Mordaunt said: “In Portsmouth, people know her and that she fights and delivers for them, but perhaps more telling [is] in Westminster no one ever has to look up where she’s from. She is Pompey through and through.”
