Polar Vortex Risk: Forecasters Say 'Super El Niño' Could Raise Winter 2026-2027 Disruption Risks Across Parts of US and Europe

The seasonal stratospheric polar vortex is strengthening as winter approaches (Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from Greenbelt, MD, USA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

A major atmospheric pattern is already taking shape over the Arctic, with the seasonal polar vortex developing above the North Pole as forecasters monitor signs of a possible mid-winter weakening.

The latest long-range forecast points to a slowdown in the vortex during winter 2026–2027, while an unusually powerful El Niño is strengthening across the tropical Pacific.