What you need to know
- Pixel phones are expected to see strong growth in 2026 even as the global smartphone market faces a YoY decline.
- Rising memory and storage costs are hitting low- and mid-tier phones hardest as data centers compete for components.
- Counterpoint now expects Google to be the biggest winner in 2026 due to AI features and wider global traction.
Google Pixel phones may not be a household name yet, but the company’s big smartphone bet appears to be paying off. Pixel shipments are expected to see strong growth in 2026, even as the broader smartphone market faces slower demand.
According to Counterpoint Research's latest report, memory and storage are becoming central to both performance and cost structures in the smartphone industry. According to the report, components that once made up under 10% of a phone's total cost now account for 20% or more of the overall bill of materials.
At the same time, data centers are competing with smartphone makers for the same memory components, driving prices higher. This has hit low- and mid-tier phones the hardest, as brands previously relied on cheaper memory. Nothing CEO Carl Pei recently warned about this exact issue.
Google Pixel might benefit most from a tough 2026
As a result, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 6.1% YoY in 2026. The report notes that Chinese OEMs, like Xiaomi, Oppo, and others, are likely to be hit the hardest, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned. Surprisingly, Counterpoint's latest forecast suggests Google could emerge as the biggest beneficiary.
Counterpoint has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Tensor SoC shipments, and by extension Pixel phones, from 13.1% to 18.9%. The firm says Google is expected to see the strongest growth thanks to AI differentiation and expanding traction beyond the U.S. and Japan.
Samsung could also see solid gains due to its upcoming 2nm Exynos 2600 chipset for the Galaxy S26 series. Meanwhile, companies like Qualcomm and MediaTek could face pressure from rising component costs.
Android Central's Take
I've been a firm believer in Pixel phones for the past few years. The jump from the Pixel 6 series to the Pixel 10 lineup has been massive, and this report reinforces that progress. Google has been steadily investing in its smartphone business, and 2026 could be the year those long-term bets finally pay off.
