The Green Bay Packers offense has found itself in a vicious cycle, especially over the last two games, where the lack of a run game and overall early down struggles permeate through the rest of the offense and the team as a whole, leading to a lot of quick punts and a lack of complimentary football.
Since the fourth quarter of the Atlanta game, there have been a lot of quiet and ineffective stretches of football for the Green Bay offense. In that game specifically, the offense ran 11 plays and held the ball for just three minutes in the fourth quarter. Against New Orleans, the Packers were held scoreless for three quarters, while Detroit took a 27-3 lead into halftime.
Buy Packers TicketsIt’s easy to say run the ball more, and while there are opportunities for that, very rarely is anything in football ever an absolute; it’s not as if the Packers’ run game has been very good. They currently rank 29th in yards per carry this season.
Also, defenses have played a lot of Cover-1 against Green Bay, basically daring them to throw the football, especially the Lions, who loaded the box often against the Packers. In many instances, from a schematic and probability standpoint, trying to move the ball through the air rather than on the ground is the correct call.
“We knew that they were going to load the box,” said Matt LaFleur following the Detroit game. “I thought we had some opportunities there to make some plays in the passing game, and we went backwards. So it puts you in ‘get back on track’ situations. We got three third downs in there, so it looks like you’ve abandoned the run when really you haven’t given yourself an opportunity to get the run game going.
“We had some run-pass cans where they gave us the look to the passes. I’m a firm believer in terms of playing probability. What has the best probability of having success?”
This is how that vicious cycle gets started. To put it simply, the Packers just haven’t been good enough in the run game to put themselves ahead of the sticks following first down. The passing game has also been way too inconsistent. Jordan Love is completing only 56 percent of his passes this season. While he has been inaccurate at times, that figure doesn’t completely fall on his shoulders either. There have been a number of dropped passes and a lack of precise route running and attention to detail by his young group of pass catchers as well.
But whatever the reasons for the Packers’ early down issues are – whether it be the run or pass game – the results are the same with them being stuck in second and third-and-long situations. At this point, any sort of unpredictability that the offense has is gone. With the defense knowing that a passing play is coming, they are able to be aggressive up front and get after the quarterback, along with being able to get into favorable matchups.
Love is completing only 46 percent of his second down pass attempts. The Packers’ average distance to gain on third downs is 8.2 yards after averaging 6.19 yards last season with an offense that was far from a juggernaut. On third-down conversion attempts with five or more yards to gain, Green Bay’s success rate is just 28.2 percent.
You get the idea. The Packers’ inability to move the ball on first down basically dooms this offense before they can even get going. This then leads to a run-pass mix that is all out of whack, short possessions, a lot of punts, and as a play-caller, LaFleur is unable to get into any sort of rhythm or have concepts build off each other.
“It hasn’t been very good when you look at it,” added LaFleur, “especially the last two games. About six of the eight quarters have not been very good football. What did we start (in the Detroit game)? Three three-and-outs? We had the one on the first possession. Good field position. And then we threw the pick. You’re on your 11th play, and the score is 24 to 3. That is not very good complementary football, and quite frankly, it gets you out of your game plan before you ever give yourself an opportunity to get the game plan going.”
Quick drives from the offense mean that the Green Bay defense is on the field more. Their inability to stop the run game only exacerbates the struggles on offense, with opponents able to control the time of possession and put points up on the board. Because of this lack of complimentary football and this cycle running its course, between the Atlanta and Detroit games, specifically, the Falcons and Lions ran, on average, 25 more plays than Green Bay did and held the ball for about 14 additional minutes. Winning games with that large of a discrepancy in total plays ran and time of possession is a monumental task.
From there, the cycle just continues to repeat itself. Scroll back to the beginning of this article, add in that the Packers are now trailing, and perhaps by multiple scores, and read through it all again. It’s like a snowball rolling down a mountain top, gaining momentum as the issues only compound and are magnified as the game goes on.
Turning things around begins with being more efficient in the run game. It also includes being more consistent in the passing game, and LaFleur is going to have to explore designing more specific plays – whether in the run or passing games – that are dialed up for Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to make sure they aren’t going a quarter or more without the ball. The offense needs to do more of the dictating and finding ways to get their playmakers the ball rather than taking what the defense forces them into.
“Do we have to do a better job of getting the ball into our playmakers’ hands, whether it’s in the run game or pass game—absolutely,” said LaFleur. We got to look at some of the things we are asking them to do and the positions we put them in. If you’ve got to manufacture it, you’ve got to find a way.”
Are there times when the Packers need to run the ball more? Sure. But football is incredibly nuanced. It’s not as simple as just hand the ball off more, especially when the Packers have been one of the worst rushing teams in football. What this really comes down to is execution. They have to be better at running the ball, and when defenses are daring them to throw it, they have to take advantage of those matchups. And if not, well, you can see the ramifications and how quickly things can spiral out of control.
“You have to be able to do both,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich, “but any time the defense is loading something you do have to be able to take advantage. If you think you’re going to consistently run the ball versus a loaded box in the NFL, you just have to have that much better players. We just need to do a better job collectively.”
