Bollywood could not have dreamt up a better opening, a practising Hindu of Indian heritage stepping into No 10 during Diwali. Rishi Sunak may have always believed he was destined to be Prime Minister, but the timing was extraordinary as he lit clay candles in Downing Street to kick off the festival of lights.
Diwali is when Hindus, Sikhs and others pray to Lakshmi, the goddess of good fortune. Sunak had plenty to thank her for, but the focus is meant to be on seeking her blessing and support for a prosperous year ahead. That did not go so well as energy, fuel and food prices went through the roof.
Yet one year on, the consumer price index has come down, gas prices are seven per cent lower, average pay has risen more than eight per cent and inflation is on target to fall below two per cent before the next general election.
In political terms that means less pain, less anger and an easing of the current understandable desire to punish those in power, seen quite dramatically in last week’s by-elections. Campaigning as a Conservative will become relatively easier and Sunak will be well placed to take some personal credit for our improving economic prospects.
We know from Liz Truss’s nano-tenure in No 10 that the people in power can make a big difference in very little time. We know that Sunak warned against her “fairytale” economic plan and that bringing down inflation has been at the heart of his strategy to ease the cost of living and restore his party’s economic credibility.
He needs to get out there and remind us repeatedly that getting the UK through Covid cost £400 billion
We also know that he — as chancellor to Boris Johnson — got the UK through the economic challenges of a pandemic in a fit enough state to bounce back better than most.
The choice for voters will therefore become a little trickier. Why ditch a hard-working, clean-living, young former finance whizz who understands that world better than most for a 61-year-old former lawyer who was happy enough to champion the economic policies of Jeremy Corbyn? The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who was taught by the same Oxford economist as Sunak, has done much to reassure business and the City. But voters tend to be more suspicious of Labour on tax and spend, just as they traditionally take some convincing that public services are safe with Conservatives.
Sunak’s greatest handicap is that the tax burden on his watch is heading towards a post-war record high with little prospect of significant improvement in a hurry. He is right that lowering inflation will do more to help most people than the symbolic headline cuts demanded by his Tory critics, and that unsustainable giveaways could do real damage. But they need to know that five more years would lighten the tax load a lot. And we all need to understand the real reason we got into this state.
Put bluntly, Sunak needs to get out there and remind us repeatedly that getting the UK though a global pandemic cost the Government about £400 billion. It’s an eye-watering sum, and it’s tragic to think what that kind of money could have achieved had it been invested in public services and improving Britain’s infrastructure. Even the hefty price tag of HS2 or meeting our net-zero ambitions are relatively small in comparison. It’s also impossible for Sunak to disown these measure because he was in charge of the Treasury when then cheques were signed.
So stop patronising people with claims to be the candidate of change, own the decisions taken that have created the current crisis but were unavoidable at the time and get real with voters that paying that bill was always going to be painful. Treat them as grown ups and they might reciprocate and believe you that it won’t always be this hard.
The same goes for public services. You cannot shut down schools, hospitals, passport offices and so much more without creating a crippling backlog, which means we’re all feeling short-changed at the moment. So what’s needed now is a far more compelling plan to get back up to speed — something tragically absent from the Prime Minister’s speech to conference.
I sat next to Sunak every weekday morning for many months last year. I know how hard he works and how methodically he seeks solutions to the problems we face. But I have seen him walk by a lectern when an important audience was expecting a speech. I know he is not comfortable with media interviews. And he would rather be at his desk than on the stump. But he has to engage with voters, embrace the press, motivate his colleagues and play to his strengths or the next general election will most definitely be lost when it didn’t need to be.
