A new line of thinking has entered the national discourse about the 49ers’ offseason quarterback moves. First ESPN’s Adam Schefter and then ESPN’s Ryan Clark put forward the idea that San Francisco is not guaranteed to trade Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason. The problem with that is that it is all but guaranteed they’ll move on under center.
Both Schefter and Clark said Trey Lance isn’t ready and that another season of Garoppolo would be preferable for the 49ers, potentially taking a trade off the table.
The phrase ‘never say never’ is applicable here, but for one key reason there’s something close to zero chance Garoppolo is on the 49ers’ roster in 2022, even if they can’t work out a trade in the offseason.
Money is potentially a problem for San Francisco this offseason. They’re working with negative $11.5 million in effective salary cap space. Unloading Garoppolo’s contract is their most efficient means of clearing salary cap space.
By trading or releasing him they’d free up $25.55 million of room. With his $26.95 million on the books they’d have virtually no wiggle room under the cap this year to add free agents and draft picks. They’ve been banking on clearing that space which is why they never restructured his deal after signing him long-term following the 2017 season. It’s cheap to get him off the books and all signs point to them doing it.
There are other factors as well, like Garoppolo bidding adieu to the fans in his final press conference, and his teammates saying their goodbyes on social media. Bringing him back after all that would be at best awkward and at worst a disaster to navigate publicly. More quarterback uncertainty hanging over the team after a full year of it would add additional adversity for a club that could just as easily avoid it.
Garoppolo didn’t play well enough to get the 49ers to the Super Bowl last season, and a second consecutive postseason of lackluster performances leaves little doubt that San Francisco has to improve under center. Running it back would not elevate their ceiling and would make it tough to continue putting together a competitive roster while navigating such a sizable cap hit for the quarterback.
Saying it’s not a lock is just pointing out that sometimes weird things can happen. Barring something Earth-shattering, Garoppolo won’t be suiting up for the 49ers next season no matter how much national personalities want to push it.
