In a season without a clear MVP favorite, you can make the case for just about anyone.
Advanced statistics, after 10 weeks, are behind the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen. That’s certainly … one argument you could make.
In a season without a top dog, Purdy’s ability to operate within Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Allen’s ability to balance out his worst instincts with explosive throws and game-changing runs have given them a statistical edge. But neither looks like an MVP, particularly since both have lost three of their last four games. In fact, most betting markets don’t even have them in the top five.
That either means these two are undervalued — possible — or that advanced stats can’t quantify what makes a player great. It’s probably a combination of those two, but this week’s results certainly lean harder toward the latter.
Let’s talk about those stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 160 snaps in 10 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers visually into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
Alone at the top
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.199 EPA+CPOE composite
I know. I get it. Purdy’s advanced stats profile doesn’t match the floated passes you see on the field or his turnover issues across the Niners’ three-game losing streak. But when he’s on, he’s an efficient quarterback with pinpoint accuracy and the processing power to make the right reads in an easy-to-command offense. Kyle Shanahan made Jimmy Garoppolo a top 10 quarterback in these rankings last season; it’s not so difficult to see how Purdy might be better, even if he’s not an MVP.
MVP candidates you sorta trust and sorta don't
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.164 EPA+CPOE composite
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.163
4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.161
5. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.157
6. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.150
Allen had a chance to rise to the top but instead shrank in a three-turnover Monday night performance that left the Bills at 5-5. Prescott jumped into the top three by dismantling the New York Giants, which is a lot like putting up big numbers against an FCS school but whatever. Hurts, Mahomes and Tagovailoa had the week off; we’ll see what they can do after 13 days of prep work.
Capable of playoff runs, surprising and not
7. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.134 EPA+CPOE composite
8. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.126
9. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.122
10. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.115
11. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.111
12. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.109
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.107
LOOK AT ALL THE REVIVALS! Jared Goff was given away by the Rams. Baker Mayfield was 2022’s worst quarterback. Russell Wilson was hot garbage in his first season as a Bronco. CJ Stroud is a rookie and Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson were both merely “OK” last season. This year they’re all in command of potential playoff teams. Very cool.
We expected better from (most of) you
14. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.078 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.073
16. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.068
17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.064
18. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.052
19. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.052
20. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.052
Lawrence remains stuck in neutral despite the Jaguars’ dearth of high level skill players. Burrow’s ascent back toward the top 10 stalled after a loss to the Texans. Watson doesn’t have to be good to win thanks to the Browns’ defense, which is great because he hasn’t been (and now he’s out for the rest of the year. The Browns gave this man $230 million guaranteed despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as “predator behavior” and he’s played 12 games in two seasons). Carr is a forgettable dinner roll in the NFL’s Thanksgiving dinner lineup of foods.
No thanks.
21. Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis Colts: 0.046 EPA+CPOE composite
22. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: 0.043
23. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: 0.041
24. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.038
25. Joshua Dobbs, Minnesota Vikings: 0.034
26. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons: 0.034
Just about everyone in this tier has underwhelmed except the two journeymen backups. Minshew and Dobbs have exceeded expectations, though given the end of Dobbs’ run as an Arizona Cardinal it’s fair to wonder how long he’ll keep it up.
The replaceables
27. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.027 EPA+CPOE composite
28. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.026
29. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.020
30. Tyson Bagent, Chicago Bears: 0.018
Garoppolo and Jones have both been replaced by rookies, one due to injury and the other … not. Bagent isn’t better than Justin Fields and should cede the starting role back to him when healthy. Young is, well, there’s just not much to like about the Panthers right now.
How are the Steelers possibly good in 2023???
31. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: 0.015 EPA+CPOE composite
32. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.011
33. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: 0.004
Kenny Pickett’s composite, quarters one through three: -0.006
Kenny Pickett’s composite, fourth quarter only: 0.128
Yeah I dunno man, he’s weird.
