It’s time to set your Week 5 DFS lineups!
There are a few games with high totals to target on Sunday -- Chiefs at Vikings, Eagles at Rams, and Giants at Dolphins -- but I am also looking at a game with one of the lowest game totals of the week: Ravens at Steelers. Maybe I like to be a little contrarian, but I think it could pay off.
The players on this list are all players I expect to return value for their salaries regardless of that price point. Check back Friday for my bargains article. That article will feature players that have low salaries that will allow you to spend up for some players in today’s list.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes, ChiefsThe Vikings have allowed an average of 20 DFS points per game to quarterbacks and Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. It’s the highest game total of the week at 52.5 on SI Sportsbook, and Mahomes and the Chiefs will be looking to come back strong after a slightly lackluster game last Sunday night vs. the Jets.
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Lamar Jackson, RavensJackson has finished as a top 9 QB for the last three weeks in a row, and this week he gets a Steelers secondary that just allowed 306 yards and two touchdowns to rookie C.J. Stroud. Not only that, but the Steelers have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season. Lamar should feast.
Matthew Stafford, RamsStafford will also make the bargains list tomorrow. WIth the potential of Cooper Kupp coming back, the fact that the Eagles have allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season (1,116), and the fact that Stafford has thrown for the second-most yards this season (1,229), how can you pass up this value?
Running Backs
David Montgomery, BearsRemember last week when we weren’t even sure Montgomery would play and then he went off for 141 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns vs. the Packers? Well, the matchup this week is even juicier, as the Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the fourth-most DFS points to opposing running backs this year.
Bijan Robinson, FalconsYes, the Houston defense is much improved, but they still struggle when defending the run. That makes for a favorable matchup for Robinson this weekend in Arthur Smith’s run-dominant offense. The Texans have allowed more than 116 rushing yards per game, and there’s no chance Desmond Ridder gets anything going vs. the tough Texans secondary. I’m using Robinson, and I’ll also throw a dart at Tyler Allgeier.
Breece Hall, JetsThe Jets are facing the Broncos. I don’t really have to say any more than that. But here’s another fun fact: Robert Saleh announced this week that Hall is no longer on a snap count. Wheels up.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson, VikingsIs the matchup great? No. But it doesn't matter. Jefferson is in a class of his own and this game has the highest game total of the week. Jefferson leads the league with 543 receiving yards, and he will be heavily involved on Sunday.
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Garrett Wilson, JetsGarrett Wilson is a stud, and Zach WIlson (who makes the bargain list tomorrow) targeted him a whopping 14 times last Sunday night. The matchup can’t be much better than it is vs. a Denver defense that just allowed Justin Fields and DJ Moore to connect for 131 yards and a touchdown last weekend.
Zay Flowers, RavensLet’s pair Flowers up with Jackson vs. the Steelers secondary that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns to wideouts this season. Flowers is commanding a 28% target share and owns a 31% air yards share. His salary also puts him in the bargain category.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews, RavensYep. I am pushing the chips all in on the Ravens. We finally saw Dalton Schultz get going last week vs. the Steelers, and Andres is seeing an average of six targets per game and owns three of the team’s four receiving touchdowns.
Zach Ertz, CardinalsThe Bengals rank 28th vs. tight ends and have already allowed three touchdowns to the position. Meanwhile, Ertz is averaging more than seven targets per game this season for the surprisingly frisky Cardinals.