With the NFL preseason in full swing, Bet FTW is taking a dive into each division to preview how each team stacks up and separate the contenders from pretenders in order to select the best futures. This is the NFC South.
The Bucs had one of the weirder off-seasons this summer thanks to Tom Brady’s mysterious retirement and near-departure for Miami only to reverse course and come back, as head coach Bruce Arians stepped down, only to step away again during the preseason. But with the GOAT quarterback in the lineup, Tampa remains one of the more dangerous teams in the NFC.
That same dangerous team that nearly knocked off the eventual Super Bowl champs in the playoffs also lost twice to the division foe Saints last season, however. So is New Orleans, or another team, ready to take that next step?
Odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook.
Division Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-300)
Over/Under 11.5 wins? Over +100
Will they make the playoffs? Yes -649
NFC odds: +300 Super Bowl odds: +750
If Tom Brady stays healthy through the year, Tampa winning the South remains one of the better locks of the season. I feel dirty even questioning whether Brady will stay healthy, seeing as he’s already defied all norms when it comes to how long a quarterback should be playing at a high level. But outside of him, the Bucs return most of a strong defense and those odds reflect their standing as one of the best in the NFC. I especially like plus odds for the Bucs to eclipse 11 wins, and don’t sleep on their chances to take the whole conference.
Contenders
New Orleans Saints (+350)
Over/Under 8.5 wins? Over +100
Will they make the playoffs? Yes +125
NFC odds: +1500 Super Bowl odds: +4000
I absolutely love this Saints roster. The biggest weakness, in my opinion, is quarterback. But even Jameis Winston was really good before his season was cut short by injury last year. The Saints play really tough defense and added standout safety Tyrann Mathieu. And the offense is adding Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to a team that beat Tampa in both meetings last year. Not only do I like these odds on the over, I’m hammering NO’s odds to make the playoffs and having to talk myself out of doing the same on its division odds. But one big injury in Tampa, and it could happen.
Remaining Teams
Carolina Panthers (+1000)
Over/Under 6.5 wins? Under -125
Will they make the playoffs? No -599
NFC odds: +5000 Super Bowl odds: +10000
Baker Mayfield represents an upgrade for the Panthers, and they’re returning Christian McCaffrey, so of course I think they’ll be better in 2022. But that’s not saying a whole lot for a team that was among the toughest to watch last season. The Panthers still have so far to go. I don’t trust this offense to consistently move the ball, and I don’t think the defense is good enough to carry that burden. Under 6.5 wins.
Atlanta Falcons (+3000)
Over/Under 4.5 wins? Under +100
Will they make the playoffs? No -1205
NFC odds: +8000 Super Bowl odds: +20000
The Falcons stink. Winning five games shouldn’t be hard, but getting Kyle Pitts a touchdown last season shouldn’t have been hard either. And that didn’t happen. I’m confident Pitts will score this year, and Drake London too. But not very often with Marcus Mariota leading the offense. Even if so, it won’t be enough to keep up with what opponents are going to do to Atlanta’s defense. I’ll roll with the plus money on their under.
More Good Bets
- Saints QB Jameis Winston wins Comeback Player of the Year +500
- Falcons WR Drake London wins Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans leads NFL in receiving touchdowns +750
- Buccaneers QB Tom Brady wins MVP +900
- Saints WR Michael Thomas wins Comeback Player of the Year +1200
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