Welcome to the Tuesday, April 16, Brew.
By: Andrew Kronaizl
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- More than 40% of recall efforts this year have focused on city council members
- Four candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District
- Fifty members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election this year—more than at this point in 2020, but less than in 2022 and 2018
More than 40% of recall efforts this year have focused on city council members
Ballotpedia has tracked recall efforts against 78 city council members so far this year, the most for all types of officeholders. Of the 186 officials in recall efforts, 41.94% have been city council members. City council members also had the highest number of recall efforts started against them from 2010 to 2020 and 2022 to 2023. The exception was 2021, when school board members faced the most recall efforts.
The average share of all recalls made up of city council members was 40.54% from 2010-2023.
The chart below shows the number of officials included in recall efforts by office type from 2010 through April 12, 2024.
Voters can use recall elections to remove officials before their terms end. The details of the recall process vary from state to state. Click here to learn about the laws governing recalls in each state.
California had the most officials included in recall efforts of any state, with 993 from 2010 to April 12, 2024. Michigan came in second with 964, and Colorado came in third with 344.
From 2010 to 2023, Ballotpedia covered an average of 217 recall efforts against an average of 353 officials per year. Those recalls had a 16.56% success rate. The success rate was calculated by dividing the number of recalled officials by the number of officials who were targeted for recall. The highest success rate was in 2011 when 83 of the 308 officials targeted for recall were removed from office, a success rate of 26.95%. The lowest success rate was in 2021 when 25 of the 545 officials targeted for recall were removed from office in a recall election, a success rate of 4.59%.
As of April 12, Ballotpedia had identified 117 recall efforts against 186 officials. In that time, 15 officials have been recalled, a success rate of 8.06%. Recalls have failed against six officials so far this year.
The chart below shows how recall efforts have fared from 2012 to the present.
Click here to read Ballotpedia’s mid- and end-year reports on recall efforts. Stay tuned for our next mid-year recall report in June.
Four candidates are running in the Democratic primary for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District
Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.
Today, we’re looking at the May 14 Democratic primary for Maryland’s 5th Congressional District, where incumbent Steny Hoyer (D), Quincy Bareebe (D), Andrea Crooms (D), and Mckayla Wilkes (D) are running.
The Longview News-Journal’s Matt Wynn wrote that the challengers are “taking on the monumental task of beating one of Congress’s most senior members.” Hoyer was a member of House Democratic leadership from 2003 through 2023, serving as majority leader or minority whip throughout that period. Since Ballotpedia began covering primary elections for this district in 2012, the closest Democratic primary was in 2020, where Hoyer defeated Wilkes 64.4% to 26.7%.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball each rated the general election Solid/Safe Democratic. Hoyer defeated Chris Palombi (R) 65.9% to 33.9% in the 2022 election.
First elected in 1981, Hoyer says he is running to continue his work on the Appropriations Committee, including overseeing the construction of a new FBI headquarters in Greenbelt, Maryland, and securing funding for early childhood education centers. Hoyer says that “during this coming election, the values, character, and very soul of America are at risk. Freedom, which makes our nation exceptional, will be on the ballot.”
Bareebe is the president and CEO of a home healthcare agency and an accountant. Bareebe says she is running “to get someone in representation that understands what it means to be late on your mortgage, understands what it means for a mother to be out there and working three jobs and their paychecks are not enough.” Bareebe says her priority is addressing the cost of living in the district.
Crooms is an attorney and the director of the Prince George’s County Department of the Environment. Crooms says she is running “because my generation and those that follow need strong representation who will help build a better tomorrow.” Crooms says her priorities are improving living conditions for working families, protecting the environment, and promoting fairness and equity.
Wilkes is a community organizer and the founder of Schools Not Jails, a group describing itself as “a grassroots, community-based organization fighting for a dismantling of the school-to-prison pipeline and broader carceral state.” Wilkes says her priorities are “criminal justice and public education reform, affordable housing, healthcare, economic and racial justice.” Wilkes has challenged Hoyer twice before, receiving 26.7% of the vote in the 2020 primary and 19.1% in the 2022 primary.
Fifty members of Congress have announced they will not seek re-election this year—more than at this point in 2020, but less than in 2022 and 2018
As of April 10, 50 members of Congress—eight senators and 42 House members—have announced they will not seek re-election in 2024—more than at this point in 2020, but less than in 2022 and 2018.
Since our March 20 Daily Brew report on congressional incumbents not seeking re-election, Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.) announced her retirement from the House, while Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.) announced he will be leaving office before the end of his term. Ballotpedia does not include incumbents leaving office early in our analysis of incumbents not running for re-election.
Of the eight U.S. Senate members not running for re-election, seven—U.S. Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Ben Cardin, (D-Md.), Tom Carper (D-Del.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.)—announced their retirements from public office. U.S. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) is running for governor of Indiana.
Of the 42 House members not seeking re-election:
- 12—three Republicans and nine Democrats—are running for the U.S. Senate
- Two—one Democrat and one Republican—are running for state attorney general
- Two—one Democrat and one Republican—are running for governor
- One Democrat—Dean Phillips—ran for President of the United States
- 25—12 Democrats and 13 Republicans—are retiring from public office
As of April 10, 2022, 46 U.S. House members had announced they were not running for re-election. Thirty-five had announced at this point in 2020, and 49 had announced at this point in 2018.
