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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Chris McCall

Mhairi Black among SNP MPs who could lose seat to Labour at general election, poll finds

Mhairi Black is one of 23 SNP MPs who face losing their seats to Labour at the next general election, a new poll has suggested.

Research by YouGov found that Humza Yousaf's party could make gains in the north of Scotland but also lose all but one of the constituencies it currently holds in Glasgow.

Black, the SNP depute leader at Westminster, is among the high-profile Nationalists whose seat is under threat from a resurgent Labour.

She first won the Paisley and Renfrewshire South constituency in 2015 - unseating political veteran Douglas Alexander in the process.

Mhairi Black was first elected in 2015 (Psisley Daily Express)

The Labour heavyweight is now tipped to win back East Lothian for the party after winning a selection contest earlier this year.

The YouGov forecast used statistical analysis to show how a general election would play out in Scotland if held today.

The SNP won 48 seats at the last UK-wide poll in 2019 but that could fall to 27 - with 23 of the losses to Labour across the central belt.

Labour’s tally of seats in Scotland is projected to increase from just one at present to 24, according to the research which involved more than 3,500 voters north of the border.

The party could also win the Western Isles, ousting the long-serving SNP MP Angus MacNeill, who has held the seat there since 2005.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West – where a recall petition could force a by-election ahead of the next general election – could be another Labour capture.

YouGov based its research on fieldwork carried out between April 10 and May 21 – after Yousaf took over as SNP leader and Scottish First Minister.

It also followed a police investigation into SNP finances resulted in both the party’s HQ in Edinburgh and the home of Nicola Sturgeon being searched.

YouGov said the findings “suggest that repeated recent bad news stories for the SNP and its new leader, Humza Yousaf, including accusations of party mismanagement and potential criminal cases being brought against senior officials, have taken a serious toll on both the party’s popular support”.

YouGov said its projections were “less rosy” for Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, who are both forecast to pick up four seats in Scotland at the next general election.

While the Tories could lose two seats to the SNP in the north east, the Liberal Democrats would stay on four, with the projections suggesting the party will fail in efforts to regain the East Dunbartonshire constituency once held by former leader Jo Swinson from the SNP.

Ian Murray, the Shadow Scottish Secretary, said: "Scotland is ready for change and it falls to Scottish Labour to deliver it.

"The people of Scotland are sick and tired of Tory and SNP sleaze and failure.

"Only Labour can end the cost of living crisis, save our NHS and bring our country together. Scotland needs a fresh start with a majority Labour government.

"Under Anas Sarwar’s leadership Scottish Labour will continue to earn back the public’s trust so we can deliver the change that Scotland needs."

SNP MP David Linden said: "Voting SNP is the only way to get rid of unelected Tory governments in Scotland for good.

"The SNP is the only party in Scotland offering a real alternative to the Tories and pro-Brexit Labour Party, handing voters the opportunity to escape the mess of Brexit and rejoin the EU with the full powers of independence.

"A strong team of SNP MPs could hold the balance of power and we would use our influence to make sure Westminster takes real action to tackle the cost of living, protect our NHS, and ensure Scotland’s democracy is respected."

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