July is likely to see some hot weather, the Met Office has said, but it said it would take an "extreme event" for rumours of 40C to come true. This month has been largely warm and dry for most and the month is on track to be the hottest June on record.
However, a few weeks of more unsettled weather are now likely, before things hot up again later in July and into August. The Met Office said temperatures in the mid to high 30Cs are possible.
Met Office senior spokesman Grahame Madge told the Mirror: “We have a chance of warmer conditions and we have seen to that anyway with climate change. Over the first half of July there is not a strong indicator of hot weather.
“We have to remember that there is currently a one per cent chance of 40C temperatures in our climate. For mid to high 30Cs we could get that and they are becoming more frequent. But for 40C it is always going to be an extreme event, even with weather change.”
Mr Madge continued: “Over the next seven to 10 days the forecast there is not really the indication of hot weather as we are entering a period of unsettled weather. But by the end of next week there are signs of a return to warm weather and so for the rest of the month of July and August it would not be a shock if we had hot weather.”
With temperatures already having risen above 30C this year, Mr Madge said with the mercury likely to rise again the hottest area will probably be the south east.
“We have seen 32.2C twice this month and 30C temperatures are likely looking at the three month projection with the south east being the hottest,” he said. “Before the industrial revolution our climate was not capable of creating temperatures of 40C and even now it is not a regular thing but it will be by the end of the century. Temperatures of 30C to 35C are more typical now, which we have seen I think in five of the last 10 years, but they are still not guaranteed.”
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The Met Office's two-week outlook from July 13 states: "Predictability during this period is low, which is typical for the time of year. There is a slight indication that high pressure may become dominant into the second half of the month, leading to fairer conditions, especially in the south.
"However, showers, at times heavy and thundery, are likely to remain a risk throughout the country. The chances of above-average temperatures redeveloping are slightly higher than normal; the chance of heatwave conditions developing is thus also slightly higher than normal, although the occurrence of heatwaves is not unusual for July."
