Met Èireann has released its monthly forecast for February and while people can look forward to some warmer weather after a bitter winter, there is one major blip in store for the shortest month of the year.
On the last day of every month, the national forecaster issues a look at the coming weeks offering people an insight into weather patterns in the time ahead to allow them to organise any activities.
However, Met Èireann has warned that these monthly forecasts, although insightful, should not be used for specific planning purposes as they have generally low skill compared with the 10-day forecast.
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This is because forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.
Below is the forecast for February divided into the four weeks in the month.
Week one : Friday 03 February to Thursday 09 February
High pressure looks set to dominate our weather for week one which will bring a light southwesterly or variable airflow over the country.
The high pressure will keep conditions mainly dry, with precipitation amounts expected to be below average, especially along southern coasts. Mean air temperatures will trend above average by around one degree, for the week.
Forecast confidence remains high for high pressure to dominate but some uncertainty with regard to sunshine amounts and rainfall totals, which will be minimal for the period.
Week two : Friday 10 February to Thursday 16 February
Some uncertainty in the weather outlook for week two but current indications suggest high pressure will decline towards Europe, introducing more unsettled conditions as low pressure starts to influence from the northwest.
Mean air temperatures will still be above normal for this time of year. The introduction of low pressure in week two of the month will strengthen a southwesterly airflow allowing fronts to move over the country from the Atlantic.
Precipitation amounts are expected to be above average for week two. Forecast confidence remains low regarding the transition to low pressure.
Week three : Friday 17 February to Thursday 23 February
High pressure looks set to build again from the southeast, slackening the airflow across the country once again, although indications are that rain may still affect parts of the north and northwest, with above-average precipitation expected there.
Again mean air temperatures are trending to be warmer than average. Forecast confidence remains low in terms of how far the high pressure will extend north.
Week four : Friday 24 February to Thursday 02 March
There is a weak signal for high pressure to build over Ireland, indicating another generally settled and dry week with air temperatures above normal and precipitation amounts expected to be below average. Forecast confidence is low this far out in the forecast.
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